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Barring any freak, Mother Nature-inspired outbursts of unseasonal rain across Suffolk in the run-up to the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, the ground should be on the quick side of good. Indeed, only one renewal of this colts� Classic in the last decade has been run on going slower than good, while it�s been good to firm in five of the last 10 renewals, including for the last three seasons.
If, as anticipated, the official description is good to form at past time for the fourth year running on May 3, I expect RAVEN�S PASS, who can generally be backed at 6/1, to add his name to the 2,000 Guineas roll of honour. But I�m also pretty sweet on 11/1 chance JUPITER PLUVIUS, who looked a horse of massive potential in his two outings last term and should also be supported.
Raven�s Pass was so impressive when breaking the seven-furlong track record at Sandown in the Solario Stakes, in which he thumped subsequent Royal Lodge hero City Leader by seven lengths, and he was not seen to best effect in his final outing of 2007 when third behind New Approach and Fast Company in the Dewhurst Stakes as underfoot conditions went against him.
As U.S. pedigree suggests, John Gosden�s charge is a top-of-the-ground horse so his handler knew going into the Dewhurst that the cut in the ground may prove to be the son of Elusive Quality�s undoing. And so it was, as Raven�s Pass travelled supremely well during the race and swept to the front two furlongs out, but couldn�t sustain his surge as they met the rising ground.
I am convinced that it was the good to soft going, not better horses, that beat Raven�s Pass that day. Back on a quick surface, the selection is taken to exact revenge on New Approach and Fast Company, as the emphasis will be on speed. The combination of his cruising speed and ability to produce an electrifying turn of foot from off a strong pace are the ingredients needed for a Guineas-winning recipe.
Few would begrudge Jim Bolger a live contender for this one-mile contest, as the Coolcullen-based handler was robbed of his great white hope ahead of last season when 2006 champion juvenile Teofilo incurred a career-ending injury. In New Approach, the Irish handler has a horse of seemingly equal ability and the son of Galileo did everything asked of him with great finesse during his juvenile campaign.
New Approach, to his credit, did win on a fast surface when proving too strong for Rio de la Plata, but I feel that his best will be displayed when there�s juice in the ground. When he won the race in question, the National Stakes at The Curragh, it was a tactical affair and Kevin Manning was allowed to dictate matters and got first run on his rivals, nicking a few lengths before the turbo had engaged with Rio de la Plata.
I am not wishing to detract from what was a thoroughly convincing and highly meritorious display, but New Approach looks to me as though he will come into his own over middle distances this year and I just wonder whether he will be able to muster the requisite acceleration to quicken sufficiently from off a strong pace over a mile on fast ground.
Fast Company may also be capable of reversing the placings with the Irish raider, but I feel strongly that Raven�s Pass is the best equipped of the trio in question to taste Guineas glory. Fast Company has joined the Godolphin camp and is one of three strong contenders the boys in blue have for this contest, the others being Rio de la Plata and Ibn Khaldun.
Personally, I think the last-named is the pick of them, as he looked a horse of immense potential last season, a campaign which culminated in a decisive three-length victory in the Racing Post Trophy. Winners of that event invariably need further than a mile as three-year-olds, but Ibn Khaldun left the impression that he has the pace to play a prominent role in the Guineas.
However, neither he nor other classy colts such as Confront and Winker Watson are fancied to trouble Raven�s Pass as much as Jupiter Pluvius, who hails from a stable that has won this four times in the last decade, that of Ballydoyle maestro Aidan O�Brien, and the son of Johannesburg could prove to be the fly in the ointment.
By his own exalted standards, 2007 was disappointing for O�Brien in terms of the amount of big-race juvenile winners he produced. However, Jupiter Pluvius, who was confined to just a brace of outings owing to a setback he suffered, could go right to the top this season.
Just eight days after his debut victory, the colt went to Leopardstown and beat another smart sort in Famous Name to land the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes. Always travelling well and picking up in good style on the fast ground, Jupiter Pluvius did the job in a professional manner and had a bit more in hand than the three parts of a length winning margin suggests.
There are few two-year-olds of last season that possess more scope than this colt. He should have no problem staying a mile and, if there is to be a horse that will outgun Raven�s Pass, Jupiter Pluvius is the most likely to do it.
Dylan Jenear, readaBet.com
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