CLICK HERE FOR ANTEPOST RACING BETTING MARKETS
Although the choice prices about CLOUDY LANE winning this year’s Grand National have evaporated faster than a puddle within the Sahara Desert, Donald McCain’s charge boasts claims so strong for this four-and-a-half mile marathon that the top-priced 7/1 on offer with NPbet still represents value in my opinion.
The eight-year-old was highly promising as a novice last season, a campaign during which he displayed his mettle by winning the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival and he has gone from strength-to-strength this term. He’ll be the best part of two stone ahead of the handicapper when going to post for this world famous event on April 5.
Indeed, if the assessor had the chance he would ensure that Cloudy Lane would be at the summit of the handicap but, as his last two wins have been achieved post publication of the weights, he’ll be running off 141, 11lb lower than that off which he slammed the classy Ungaro by seven lengths in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster on March 1.
For that victory, I reckon that the gelding will be bumped up a further 12lb or so he’ll be around 23lb well-in on National day. However, he’s still comparatively lightly raced and, given the rate of knots that he’s been progressing, it seems almost certain that there is more to come from the son of Cloudings.
This would also be a poignant success for McCain Junior, whose father saddled Red Rum to an unprecedented three Grand National victories and rolled back the years when sending out Amberleigh House to triumph in the 2004 renewal. And Cloudy Lane has all the attributes required to win a Grand National.
It goes without saying that you need a safe conveyance – and Cloudy Lane has barely touched a twig in four starts during the current campaign subsequent to unseating his rider in last season’s Irish National. He’s stamina-laden, travels well, is versatile with regard to going and boasts a turn-of-foot synonymous with a high-class staying chaser.
The McCain yard continues in fine form, which augurs well for the selection’s prospects, and stable jockey and regular pilot Jason Maguire is riding with more confidence than ever. All in all, Cloudy Lane looks just the ticket for Aintree and, although it seems folly to be too dogmatic about the outcome of such an unpredictable race, I can’t see him being beaten.
Hedgehunter runs under the same ownership as Cloudy Lane, that of Trevor Hemmings, and Willie Mullins’ charge is always to be respected. The 12-year-old won this in 2005 off a 12lb lower mark, chased home Numbersixvalverde 12 months later and was a disappointing ninth in last year’s renewal.
He’s not getting any younger and will be among, if not they top-weight, but his campaign has gone smoothly this season and he really caught the eye when chasing home the progressive Afistfullofdollars in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February when another contender for this, Snowy Morning, was back in third.
The latter was a costly loser in that Grade 2 event having been sent off the 4/6 favourite, but he certainly shapes as though this extreme stamina test will help see him in a better light. There’s no doubt that he has the ability to go well – he chased home Denman in the 2007 Sun Alliance Chase – but I feel that Cloudy Lane will be too strong for him.
Another Irish raider, Slim Pickings, ran a cracking race when third in this last term and has shown himself to be in good form during his preparation for a repeat bid. As much as he commands respect, I can’t help thinking that this season’s National will have a bit more strength in depth, therefore he may struggle to play such a prominent role this time.
Simon is a gallant performer who ran a fine trial for this when keeping on to finish fourth behind Gungadu in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton in February. However, he fell in last year’s National and, given that he’s such a small horse, there has to be a worry about his ability to successfully negotiate each of the 30 obstacles this time around too.
Mr Pointment left the impression that he could end champion trainer Paul Nicholls’ hoodoo in this contest when posting a grand performance to beat Bewleys Berry by a length in the Becher Chase over the National fences in November. But the handicapper had his say and raised him 9lb and the runner-up 6lb, so neither appear particularly well treated.
Furthermore, Mr Pointment was subsequently well beaten behind Cloudy Lane in the Grimthorpe and Bewleys Berry did little to advertise his wellbeing when tailing off and eventually being pulled up at Haydock last time, so both have real questions to answer at present.
I’m confident about Cloudy Lane, but I always think it’s wise to have an each-way saver in the Grand National – with 40 horses lining up it’s good practice to have more than one contender in your portfolio – and BUTLER’S CABIN, a standout 27/1 with Irish firm Bet Chronicle, looks the best option at rewarding odds.
Jonjo O’Neill has endured a barren season by his own exalted standards this term and has painful memories of this race having came agonisingly close to landing it on a couple of occasions with Clan Royal. However, Butler’s Cabin comes into his own during the spring, possesses ample stamina and is certainly not short of ability.
The Poliglote gelding marked himself down as a future Grand National candidate when landing the amateur riders’ event at last season’s Cheltenham Festival before coming out on top in the Irish equivalent of this last year. Interestingly, Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde both won that race the year before tasting glory at Aintree.
Admittedly, the eight-year-old’s last two outings have resulted in inauspicious displays, but there were plenty of positives to glean from his reappearance effort at Leicester in January when coming home in third place behind Jack The Giant over an inadequate trip of two and a half miles.
Needless to say, you’ll be taking plenty on trust when backing Butler’s Cabin, not least the form of Jonjo’s string, but he has been trained for this race and, as I alluded to earlier, he is a horse that tends to flourish at this time of year. He’ll do well to beat Cloudy Lane, but at the price on offer there are few better each-way bets to be had.
Dylan Jenear, readaBet.com
Article created on 4-/-0/2008 07: 1Send this article ( GRAND NATIONAL BETTING ODDS PREVIEW – CLOUDY LANE ) to a friend
