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Gordon Brown will call a General Election inside a year if the tabloid press is to be believed with the most likely date June 2008. The massive hint came apparently from the announcement rising star Dougie Alexander will be the General Election Coordinator.
A new poll last over the weekend gave Labour its first lead over the Tories in months. Labour are on 39 points, the Tories on 36 and the Lib Dems trailing on 15. The Ipsos MORI survey showed voters see Mr Brown as a far more capable PM than Mr Cameron.
It is reasonable to see why an outgoing Chancellor would want to call an early election given also the Tories have yet to set out their policies for government. Most observers had initially expected an election in June 2009, giving him two clear years in charge.
The odds would suggest 2008 is the more likely year with 5/4 currently on offer from Ladbrokes, although the 2/1 for 09 looks a far more enticing offer.
Commenting on the Mori Poll, Sir Robert Worcester made some fascinating observations, not least Gordon Brown is a very cautious man and won�t rush to the polls on the back of a short term bounce. It just wouldn�t make sense for someone who has waited the best part of a decade to PM to take a chance on an early election.
Judging by some of the text messages flying into Sky News and Radio 5, there are a fair few disgruntled Labour voters who are not happy with a new face heading the government, and most likely wouldn�t be lending their support to Brown and co. A couple of the years at the helm would probably see those complaints die down over time.
One comment made by Sir Robert Worcester though makes June 2009 a banker bet:
For every 3 points above the 56% expected turnout (upto 76%), Labour would benefit by 1% point. That could mean extra 15-20 seats.
June 4th was the date identified because on that day the European Parliament elections are being held, while the local elections could be delayed a month to this date. Throw in a General Election and the chances of a very high turnout climb significantly.
It may also be worth mentioning there won�t be a major football tournament in 2009 unlike in 2008 when hopefully the majority of this nation will be dreaming of John Terry leading England to Euro glory.
We may have to wait a while for the profits, but a sizeable investment on June 2009 should pay handsome dividends.
James Millman, readaBet.com
Article created on 8-/-0/2007 21: 2Send this article ( UK NEXT GENERAL ELECTION DATE BETTING PREVIEW ) to a friend
