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2003-01-26
Tampa Bay v Oakland Raiders

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For the first time ever in a Super Bowl, the league`s top-ranked offence (Oakland Raiders) will pit their wits against the league`s top-ranked defence (Tampa Bay). In the opinion of the odds layers, it is Oakland who are favoured at 1/2 to win. Tampa can be supported at 6/4 to win outright or at 10/11 with a 3.5pts start.

As it is the Super Bowl, the odds layers have pushed the boat out and are offering all sorts of markets. One bet that immediately catches the eye is the 10/11 for Oakland to score less than 24 points. On only one occasion this season has Tampa allowed a team to score more than 24 points against them and that was in week 1 against New Orleans in overtime.

As well as the intriguing battle of the number one offence and defence, there is another almost equally fascinating subplot. Tampa Bay gave up numerous draft picks and paid $8 million to take Jon Gruden from Oakland to Tampa. The outstanding coach was given the brief to win a Super Bowl. He is now just one game away from achieving this goal in his very first season. Whilst Tampa is a growing team that should go from strength to strength, the window of opportunity for the Raiders is about to shut with so many veterans on the roster.

It is important for Oakland this week that the offensive line gives enough protection to Rich Gannon. In the AFC Championship game, Tennessee were unable to get close to the MVP which showed up in the number of points they conceded. One area the Raiders must improve upon is the number of penalties they give away. In their last two games, they have been penalised 22 times for just short of 200 yards. Playing against the number one ranked defence will be hard enough without needlessly attracting numerous flags.

For Tampa to win the game, their defence has to show why it was the best in the NFL. Gannon cannot be allowed to pass at will to his talented set of receivers. It is imperative cornerbacks Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly are physical with the Oakland receivers to ensure they don`t settle into any rhythm. Last weekend the Bucs D was superb with the exception of the opening Eagles drive. More of the same will be needed on Sunday.

If the Tampa defence can play well and give the offence good field position to work with, Brad Johnson should be able to put points on the board. The Oakland secondary is far from healthy, which is something Johnson will look to exploit. For the Tampa QB to be effective, the offensive line has to play as well as it did last week. Johnson was not sacked once. After his 70 yard run last weekend, wide-receiver Joe Jurevicious could have a big role to play.





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Betting Verdict
4pts Tampa Bay to beat Oakland Raiders at 6/4 (Hills)

Oakland do have more play-off experience and this might partially explain why they are favourites. However, what will count against them eventually is the number of penalty yards they concede. The Raiders have struggled all season with penalties and it is hard to see them solving the problem before Sunday. A further sign of encouragement for Tampa is their improving offence. The passing game is working well, while the running game has shown signs of clicking into gear in the last month. The value certainly lies with the NFC Championship winners.

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