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Super Bowl 37: Spreads
Ben Swift, readaBet.com
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2003-01-26
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Tampa Bay v Oakland Raiders |
The Raiders as an offensive unit don`t have any real weaknesses. They have shown week in week out an ability to score points for fun. Apart from the second month of the season the only game in which the offence struggled to get going was in Miami. The Dolphins are the one franchise in the AFC with a defence that comes anywhere near that of Tampa. The speed of the Miami defensive line was too much for Rich Gannon who had one of his least productive games of the year.
Going on how Oakland struggled to cope with Miami in week 15, it is reasonable to assume the Tampa defence will also contain the number one offence in the league. The Bucs have arguably the best ever pass defence and in Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber possess two cornerbacks with pace to burn. There is also the speed and bulk of Sapp and Rice for the league`s MVP to worry about. It is interesting to note opposing quarterbacks have a 48.4 passing rating against Tampa; some of the QB`s to play against the Bucs include Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick and Brett Favre. Rich Gannon will do extremely well to maintain his passing rating of around 100.
IG`s Triplets quote for Oakland is pitched at 440-470. This market awards 1 point for each net yard gained for rushing, receiving or passing for Gannon, Rice, Garner. These three players have averaged 468 yards per game this season. This figure has an inflated look about it, thanks mainly to their opening month when they played Seattle, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Buffalo. The Steelers, Titans and Bills had all sorts of defensive problems and gave up a massive amount of yards against Oakland. When the Raiders took on Miami in week 15, Gannon, Garner, Rice, managed just 304 yards. In the final two matches of the regular season, the Raiders triplets were held to a total 613 yards.
Even when Oakland have racked up the points, this hasn`t necessarily resulted in Gannon, Rice, Garner putting up massive numbers. Against Tennessee in the AFC Championship game they managed 456 yards. Part of the reason why the triplets failed to manage 500+ yards was due to the Titans tactic of keeping the Oakland offence off the field for as long as possible. We should expect the Tampa offence to try and stay on the field for long periods to give their defence the best chance of shutting out Gannon and co.
The above points lead me to suggest a sell of the Oakland Triplets at 440 has the potential for a big profit without too much risk attached. Of course Gannon, Rice, Garner have proved their ability to post impressive figures, but until now they haven`t come across the best defence in the NFL. Put your faith in the Tampa D to show one more time just why they are the number one ranked defence in the NFL. |
| Betting Verdict |
0.25pts sell of Oakland Triplets (Gannon, Rice, Garner) at 440 (IG)
Tampa defence is the best in NFL and can contain number one ranked defence. Oakland struggled against one decent defensive unit (Miami) they faced in regular season.
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