CLICK HERE FOR POLITICS BETTING MARKETSShortly after this preview was published - Bluesq suspended the % turnout market - they have since reopened the market - but have made an alteration to the over/under quote. They now make it 56.5% for higher/lower backers - which although being a full two points higher should still be surpassed. However, stakes should be reduced given the higher percentage mark.
Bluesq are offering a price on the percentage of voters who vote on November 2nd. Below 54.5% and above 54.5% are the two options and both can be backed at 5/6. Based on the reports coming out of the US press, there looks to be every chance of a much bigger turnout than in 2000 when 54% of the Voting age population turned out.
According to an article on the sfgate.com website, Curtis Gans, director of the non-partisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate predicts that 58 percent to 60 percent of registered voters -- or 118 million to 120 million Americans -- will turn out. That would represent a significant increase from the 54 percent, who voted in 2000.
There are other reasons for expecting a higher turnout. Election officials in several key battleground states have reported a surge of new voter registrations, leading many to believe a larger-than-expected turnout on Nov. 2 is on the cards.
In Ohio, three of the state\'s 88 counties -- Cuyahoga (the location of Cleveland), Franklin (Columbus) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) -- have reported 361,473 new registered voters. In Pennsylvania, the secretary of state\'s office expects to report between 8.1 million and 8.2 million registered voters -- up from about 7.7 million in 2000.
In Nevada, officials are expecting 250,000 to 350,000 new voter registrations when they confirm the final figures next week -- a huge jump for a state where just 880,000 voters were registered in 2000. Clark County, the state\'s largest county, which includes Las Vegas and tilts toward Democrats, has registered more new voters in the past year -- in excess of 150,000 -- than in the previous three years combined.
West Virginia, another battleground state, is still processing voter registration cards after the deadline closed Wednesday, but officials expect at least 50,000 to 60,000 new registrations. Nearly 62 percent of registered West Virginia voters turned out in 2000, narrowly backing Bush. Election officials now are predicting a turnout of 75 percent to 80 percent of registered voters.
All in all Bluesq do look to have made a mistake in offering 5/6 on there being more than a 54.5%, and so a decent sized bet is recommended. Given the numerous estimates of an increased turnout, plus measures put in place to ensure a high as possible turnout in states such as Florida following the problems in 2000 � this bet looks to have every opportunity of being successful.
James Millman, readaBet.com
Article created on 19/10/2004 11:29Send this article ( PERCENTAGE TURNOUT OF VOTERS AT US ELECTIONS ODDS ) to a friend
