FTSE TO SCORE OVER EURO 2004?

Does a nation's stock market perform better when its football team is winning on the pitch?

That's the poser for Victor Chandler punters now that the firm's financial department has priced up a market listing the major stock market indices of ten countries competing in Euro 2004.

"Many financial analysts believe stock market behaviour is influenced by events that change the mood of a country, such as winning or hosting a major international tournament," said Chandler's finance man James Amatt.

"That's why we're asking which of our ten favourite countries competing in Euro 2004 will have the best performing stock market index over the duration of the tournament."

The financial expert pointed to England's exploits in the 2003 Rugby World Cup final against Australia as evidence that a nation's stock rises and falls on the strength of its sporting fortunes.

"The FTSE 100 closed over 60 points up on the Monday after the 2003 Rugby World Cup final whereas the Australian markets had a flat day."

Accordingly, Chandler's outright list sees countries expected to fare well in Portugal at the top end of the market.

France's CAC 40 and Italy's MIB 30 are installed as the firm's market leaders at 5/1 with the host nation Portugal's PSI-20 at 6/1.

"There will be a real party atmosphere in Portugal throughout Euro 2004 and that could well affect market sentiment there," he said.

England's FTSE 100 is rated a 7/1 chance along with Spain's IDEX 35 and Holland's AEX.

Amatt added that punters who dispute the positive correlation between sporting endeavour and rising stock will find some big priced opportunities further down the market.

"If you think the idea that stock markets respond positively to success is a load of rubbish, there's value to be had by backing the indices of 12/1 Sweden and 14/1 Denmark, who are unfancied to lift the trophy but have as much chance as any other country of having the best performing market index over the period."

Outright betting:
 
CAC 40 (France) 5/1
MIB 30 (Italy) 5/1
PSI-20 (Portugal) 6/1
FTSE 100 (England) 7/1
IDEX 35 (Spain) 7/1
AEX (Holland) 7/1
PX 50 (Czech Republic) 8/1
DAX (Germany) 10/1
OMX (Sweden) 12/1
KFX (Denmark) 14/1

All the quoted indices can be monitored at: <http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/wei_region2.html>

The winner will be the country whose named index climbs the most (or falls the least, if all the named indices fall) in percentage terms, between the close of business on June 11 (the eve of the tournament) and the close of business on July 5 (the day after the final).

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