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Duckstabber
Joined: 01 May 2002
Posts: 24
Location: Aarhus, Denmark
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Sat 18 May, 2002 8:17 pm Post subject:
World Cup Group Mini-Performances (Sporting Index) |
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Markets apply to teams' three group games.
(Win: 15 points, Draw: 5 points, Goal: 10 points, Clean Sheet: 5 points, Red Card:
-15 points
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I've had a look at the World Cup Mini-Performances market at Sporting Index. I've come up with the selections mentioned below. Any comments or other suggestions would be appreciated
Senegal 32-37:
Sell
I don't see the World Cup newcomers Senegal getting many points in group A. France will beat Senegal without conseeding any goals and perhaps they'll manage a 1-1 or 2-2 draw with either Uruguay or Denmark which will give them 15-25 points. The African teams didn't perform well during Africa's Cup earlier this year and I expect most African countries to struggle in the World Cup.
Spain 85-90:
Sell
I consider Spain a dark horse for the World Cup but in this Mini-Performances market I think they've been overated. Both Slovenia and Paraguay are capable of causing an upset against Spain. In the preliminaries Spain drew once with both Israel and Austria and they allways seem to underperform in the World Cup. They should beat South Africa but the other two might not be easy.
Saudi Arabia 28-33:
Sell
Saudi Arabia are in group E with Germany, Ireland and Cameroon. I simply can't see Saudi Arabia getting anything - a draw and two goals if they're lucky.
Tunisia 35-40:
Sell
As I mentioned I haven't got much confidence in the African teams this year. And I also believe that Tunisia will have a hard time in group H with Russia, Belgium and Japan. I believe that Russia and Belgium are the strongest teams and will proceed to 2nd round. But Japan are on home soil and the japanese will demand that their heros beat a team like Tunisia.
Well, this is what I've come up with so far. It would be great to get your opinions too. This forum might be small but it looks like the people here know what they're talking about.
Best Regards
Duckstabber
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roguetrader
Joined: 04 Apr 2002
Posts: 60
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Sun 19 May, 2002 9:26 am Post subject:
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I was going to start this by saying a sell of spain is not a good idea. But then if we look at it from a worst case scenario, it make some sense
3wins - 45points
3clean sheets - 15points
6 goals - 60points
a total of 120pts. Now this is unlikely so a sell might be alright but probably not the best bet out there |
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Wolf
Joined: 06 Apr 2002
Posts: 32
Location: Staffordshire
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Sun 19 May, 2002 10:55 pm Post subject:
Groups... |
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Great analysis Duckstabber, I reckon you have hit on outstanding Value in the Sell of Senegal @32.
In a group with France, Denmark and Uruaguay I agree they will struggle for points and a Sell on this has to be a starter for the WC.
Generally, I think you have under-estimated the African Nations, watch for Cameroon (best Africans) to go thro' with the Germans in Group E, and, highly controversial, take a look at Nigeria in Englands Group to run the big boy's close...
No doubt before the big k.o. we will get our teeth into a bit more value but for now, yes, Sell Senegal...good luck.
Wolf. |
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sportspreader
Joined: 03 Apr 2002
Posts: 67
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Sun 19 May, 2002 11:14 pm Post subject:
Why Senegal could be a superb sell |
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There are two things that make Senegal a good sell in my opinion
1) They can't score goals - i think in the African Cup they hardly scored at all.
2) They will have at least one player (maybe two or three) sent off in their matches. Senegal are known for over the top challenges.
So no wins, no goals, a sending off or two and we should have a make-up of 0.
All in all it does look to have some sound value
As for other African Nations doing badly - Dangerous ploy to back against Nigeria and Cameroon. They have surprised many times in the past and will no doubt do so in the future.
Nigeria could be even the surprise package in England's group - what are they something like 9/1. I am not going to back them as i refuse to bet against England but for non-Englishman it might be worth a few Euros. |
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Bob
Joined: 23 Apr 2002
Posts: 22
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Mon 20 May, 2002 5:14 pm Post subject:
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There are serious opportunities to make money on this market. I think there are loads of potential sells of teams - but i do like the look of ReadaBets tip to sell Germany at 72. They have very tough matches against Ireland and Cameroon and also have to play the best of the crap teams in Saudi Arabia. I also like Duckstabbers tip to sell Tunisia - certainly money to be had there.
As for my own suggestions - not sure yet but i will post when i know them |
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Spurs Man
Joined: 04 Apr 2002
Posts: 34
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Tue 21 May, 2002 12:00 am Post subject:
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just been having a very close look at all the world cup odds - the spreads look particularly interesting.
I'm not sure re the 'mini-performances' - all seems too risky for my liking.
A couple you made the point that Nigeria would be good - disagree totally - they will be the Group F of Death whipping boys.
My advice:
(based on the group placings 1st=25pts 2nd=10pts 3rd=5pts)
BUY turkey at 11pts (good suggestion readabet)
BUY Russia at 12.5 pts
SELL Nigeria at 5pts.
Also that other spread market (win WC=100pts, final=75, semi=50, 1/4=33 and last 16=20)
BUY Italy at 45pts - they have the easiest route of all the teams to the semis.
do you lot think I'm off my trolley? |
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The Hen
Joined: 04 Apr 2002
Posts: 61
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Tue 21 May, 2002 1:06 pm Post subject:
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| Good stuff Duckstabber. However, I'm sceptical on the Senegal bet as they are not totally useless on the football pitch and have greater footballing potential than some of the other ropey teams in this tournament. The sell of Tunisia looks a better bet to me. |
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CardinalRed
Joined: 04 Apr 2002
Posts: 15
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Thu 23 May, 2002 7:23 pm Post subject:
Some further thoughts..... |
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Some very interesting thoughts from everyone. Here are some further observations.....
Tunisia. Okay, granted I don't know much about them but surely they would be be sure sell in the mini-group performances market? However I'm a little bit sceptical about Senegal. They could be taken a little bit too lightly and it's not like they are a bad team - they reached the African Cup final and did well in qualification for the World Cup. Uruguay and Denmark are not exactly World beaters so I'd fancy Senegal to maybe spring a surprise. I can't see tunisia doing the same in their group but I suppose that is the beauty of the world Cup - you never know. Who'd have thought Cameroon would beat the Argy bargy's? So I will probably leave Senegal alone - what does everyone else think?
Turkey. Now, I think turkey will do well in the World cup but do people really think they could win their group? I don't think they can beat Brazil but I fancy them against China and Costa Rica and believe they will progress to the 2nd round. If Turkey do this they will face a team from Group H (prob Russia, Japan or belgium) so this being the case would have an excellent chance of playing in the Quarter-Finals. Basically what I'm trying to say is that I feel that the best chance of making a profit with Turkey is in the World Cup 100 index, not the Group index - unless they do beat Brazil in the opener. If that happenned then going with turkey would prove to be an absolute masterstroke. Any views on this?
Group E. I have to say that I really fancied Ireland to progress to the 2nd round and I also think people are underestimating the Germans big time. However the loss of Roy Keane is surely going to have a big effect on the Ireland team so maybe Cameroon have a good chance of progressing. This could be a very tight group but I feel strongly that the Germans are going to make more of an impact than many are expecting. If the Germans win their group then they play(probably) one of Slovenia, paraguay or south Africa. They have enough quality to see off those teams. Not sure the Germans will progress much further though.
I still believe that Turkey and Russia are huge value in the 100 index and I really have a feeling that this could be Italy's year?
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CardinalRed (WFC)
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