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I have observed the development of this website and forum and feel that progress has been good. The time has now come for us all to evolve though. The questions posed by ‘Shadow’ as to what makes a professional gambler are thought provoking and we should use this as a basis to take some steps forward.

First we must realise that the business that we are involving ourselves in is known as betting. That is, gambling. This implies that we are committing cash/credit to predicting events that we do not fully research. This is fine if it is just a bit of fun that passes the time for that said being. The only drawback here is that the gambler will not be profitable, and instead he shall fill the bank account(s) of the bookmaker. We should picture ourselves more as cousins of stock market traders who use sports events as our instrument of choice with which to trade. This whole arena centres on the concept of probability. Whether we label ourselves ‘Behemoths of Betting’, or instead ‘Moguls of Odds’, we cannot escape that fact. And we should plan our strategies with that very thought at the forefront of our minds.

To win in this arena we should consider our strengths, our weaknesses, our opponents and our targets. Firstly, our opponents, the bookmakers. These opponents are the kings of probability. Such kings that they can set odds that seem incredibly attractive to punters, who subsequently take up the odds. However, the bookmaker is such a king of the odds that they take in massive profits on top of giving their generous odds, in excess of £1 million a day in the case of the High Street inhabitants. Our targets are to take money off these opponents consistently. The big payday once every few weeks is not good enough. Stock Market traders do not live in hope for the big payday. They work hard each day to make small profits while always ready to take advantage of the big payday if it rears its head. As cousins of stock market traders we must look at this the same way. Consistent profits are the target. Our strengths are that we have the chance to stay out of bets if we so desire, unlike the bookmaker who must honour his commitments. Our weaknesses are lack of time in many cases, thus causing a lack of research - immediately giving the upper hand to the bookmaker. We must ensure that the bookmaker is not given the head start through the use of increased research on our own part. This unfortunately means that we cannot commit capital to each and every sport and try to be a ‘Jack of all Markets’, and a ‘Master of No Markets’. To give an example, an upper hand may be gained by studying the ‘Fat Lady’ market laid by Sporting Index. Careful and detailed analysis of this, taking all possible variables into account, will give the punter equality or an edge over the bookmaker. By spreading oneself too thin over too many markets, consistent profits will become more and more difficult to attain, in fact elusive for many.

Use should also be made of betting exchanges, increasing as they are in number. These galleries of betting odds are slowly eradicating the need for the official bookmaker, who will fight to prevent himself becoming surplus to requirements. This should lead to improved odds in both cases. Betting exchanges provide fertile land for the punter, mainly due to the competitiveness of fellow punters to lay favourable odds in order to balance their books. Due to the number of differing strategies utilised on betting exchanges by odds layers (and backers), many opportunities arise with which to add to the small, but consistent profits. Arbitrage may also become available to the punter by using two different markets to offset one’s risk.

In Summary, successful professional gambling must build its foundations on use of detailed research to provide consistent, though often modest, returns on capital. This may not sound like many peoples’ idea of fun. If one requires fun, there are many ways to find it. By finding fun through inadequate market research, the only true winner is the bookmaker. Why not give your hard earned capital to a homeless instead? To win in this competitive but exciting arena, we must remember, like all great stock market traders, that it is the bottom line that counts at the end of the betting year, and nothing else.

[admin]

See Football Fixed Odds for original posting by Forum Member, Shadow, on this topic.

[Spread Eye Knight]

Interesting points made. I definitely reckon that there will be more of a move towards quantitative analysis within betting over coming years. And every better worth his salt should be on Betfair... the big bookmakers offer little else apart from accumulators and the odd special (that isn't on Betfair due to lack of liquidity).