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Hot on the heels of the sensational one day series and that truly memorable Lord’s final, follows the Test series between England and India. If that final was anything to go by – with quality cricket, great weather, superb atmosphere and terrific excitement, then we will have a fantastic ‘Indian Summer’.
The four-match series gets underway at Lord’s on July 25th and continues with matches at Trent Bridge, Headingley then culminates at the Oval in early September. The two nations have not played much Test cricket against each other in recent years as in the past twelve years only nine Tests have taken place. India won the series in 1993 and lost in 1996, however for the first time for five and a half years England and India renewed their rivalry last December in a hard fought and close Test series.
India won a three-match series 1-0 on home turf, but England could gain much confidence from that tour as in they certainly had the better of the two
drawn Tests where in both matches they had comfortable first innings leads. The fact that India have such a sensational home record does illustrate how well England did to virtually match the Indians.
However, now that the venue has switched, England on home turf will be the favourites for the series win at 5/4. India meanwhile are at a distant 11/4
to win the Test series. These odds may seem good value on the surface as the Indian side contains a plethora of world-class talent and have seemingly already got to grips with the English conditions as demonstrated by the rampant one-day side. But the real reason why India are such outside favourites is due to its away Test record.
It is probably fair to say that India have an abysmal away Test record. Apart from a one-off Test Match in Bangladesh, the Indians have not won an away test series since 1993/1994 against a then, weak Sri Lanka side. Then before that series win, one has to go back to 1986 to see India win away, in England. It is difficult to pinpoint why India are such bad travellers, but reasons such as homesickness and inability to cope with alien conditions are frequently suggested. Whatever the reason, this record is no coincidence and India away from home are a poor side.
In the last few years, India have lost away series in South Africa, Sri Lanka, the West Indies and Zimbabwe, so clearly something radical has to be done to buck this trend. England in contrast are quickly improving as a Test playing nation under the combined leadership of Fletcher and Hussain. Since this duo has been in control, England’s Test record has read: Played 29, Won 12, Drawn 8 and Lost 9. For a nation who were the laughing stock of World Cricket a few years ago, the English have done well to achieve a recent winning record. In fact, take away the series loss to the all-conquering Australians, England’s record would sound even more impressive.
In England’s last few series at home, they have on the whole looked commanding. In 2000, the West Indies and Zimbabwe were swept aside. In 2001 England beat Pakistan by an innings, but then narrowly lost the second Test. However, later in the 2001 summer, the Australians came up against England, and it was unfortunate that several England stars were injured as the experienced and world-class Australians ran riot. But England retained some dignity with a morale boosting win at Headingley. And of course, earlier
this summer, England at home overwhelmed the Sri Lankans in a totally
one-sided series.
Many pundits say that a settled Test side is a successful Test side – and certainly England have a very secure looking team. However, just as England have started to play Test cricket with some consistency, the old enemy – injuries, have set in. The four automatic choices of Trescothick, Gough, Caddick and Tudor are all out for the first Test, and the signs are that the former three could all be out for the series.
The batting had looked especially solid as the top seven in the batting order seemed set in stone. Vaughn and Trescothick would normally open but
due to the Somerset opener’s absence Butcher will be nudged up the order to join Vaughn at the start of the innings. Hussain and Thorpe will also be pushed up a place to occupy the 3 and 4 positions – these two can now be
relied upon in Test cricket to gradually accumulate runs in their innings and make big scores. The recalled John Crawley will then step in at number 5
and the age-defying Alec Stewart looks to have consolidated his wicket-keeper/batsmen position with typically reliable keeping and his 123 at Old Trafford earlier this summer proves he still has plenty to offer with the old lump of willow. Flintoff should bat at number seven, but needs more consistency if he wishes to retain a spot this high in the order.
The four bowling spots, at least for the first Test, will be filled by Ashley Giles, Matthew Hoggard, and Simon Jones looks certain to finally get his chance. The remaining place will be fought for between Dominic Cork and Craig White. I happen to think that White will get the nod as early forecasts predict sunshine which will favour the Yorkshireman, plus with the absence of Trescothick, extra batting talent lower down the order will be very useful.
Due to the makeshift bowling line-up, England’s attack will be the focal point of the first Test Match. Tactics will determine whether Giles will play a significant role, but in the five day game, as pitches deteriorate spin will become a key weapon on some pitches so his skills may be required,
even if his record in England is not really encouraging. Both Flintoff and
Hoggard have promised much for long now, but with an encouraging couple of
games on the winter tours and versus Sri Lanka, this is the time for these
two to take centre stage. Discipline will be the key to Jones’ Test
introduction – he oozes talent but can be often inaccurate, so must be
prepared to take some punishment.
If England’s bowlers can perform to the best of their abilities and keep
things simple such as keeping the ball in on the right line and length, then
England should manage to take 20 wickets in a game. However, with the
absence of the influential Gough and Caddick, England’s bowling will lack
their best and most experienced campaigners and it could well prove too much to rely on Hoggard and co.
However, what stands in England’s way are an array of wristy Indian batsmen who are all well used to scoring runs. The pick of the bunch is Sachin
Tendulkah. His skills and abilities are well documented and with three
centuries and four half-centuries in his last nine Tests, his threat ensures
his wicket will always be the main prize. The rest of the Indian batting
attack is comprised of Laxman, Dravid and Ganguly, all of who have Test
batting averages over fourty but are not in the form of their careers.
Dravid in fact has an average of over fifty, but has only hit one century
and two fifties in his last fourteen knocks. Laxman managed just one half
century against England, missed out against Zimbabwe, but had a decent West Indian tour. Meanwhile, the most concerning form is to the Indian captain who has only managed one fifty in his last eight attempts.
The remaining batting spots look set to be fought for by Das, Jaffer and
Sehwag. Sehwag and Jaffer look the have the advantage due to Sehwag’s good ODI form and the promise he has shown in his five Test matches. Jaffer, who has also played five Tests came in for the last three West Indies games
looks set to be given a chance over Das, as Jaffer scored two half-centuries
in recent matches, whereas Das who has played in all of India’s last nine
matches, has not scored a fifty in ten innings. Ratra will be given the wicket-keeper’s gloves for the series but has yet to earn the right to call himself an all-rounder as all too often he is dismissed cheaply.
Like England though, India appear to have an almost settled batting line up
but the bowling positions are truly up for grabs. Srinath has now retired, so the experience of Kumble will be used alongside the ‘Turbanator’ – Harbhajan Singh. These two bowlers have easily been the best of India’s Test attack in recent times with 65 wickets between them in India’s last ten Tests. Also when one considers that that Kumble’s bowling average is just under eighteen, and that Singh’s is 11.66, the threat of these two is immense.
However, under closer scrutiny, it becomes evident that these two bowlers,
like the Indian side in general are more effective when playing at home. Of
these combined 65 wickets in the last ten tests, only seventeen of these
were recorded outside of India. In other words, less then one-third of the duo’s wickets come on foreign soil. This assertion seems to be backed up by
the fact that both bowlers took a fair degree of punishment in the recent
ODI series and could not find much spin in the English wickets.
The other bowling positions will be given to any of Khan, Nehra, Yohannan,
Bangar or Agarkar. Quite simply all of these five bowlers are inexperienced
and have never bowled a Test delivery in England before. The fact that Nehra
has the best average of these bowlers at 34.38 indicates that the bowling will be India’s main weakness throughout this series. India will be heavily relying on Kumble and Singh, but this reliance could all be in vain if the pitches do not turn like they do in India.
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| Betting Verdict |
4pts India to win Test Series at 11/4 (totalbet)
5pts Drawn First Test at 10/11 (Bet365)
View England v India Best Odds
If England were to start this series with a fully fit squad I would have confidence in backing England to win the series. However, the loss of arguably, England’s best bat in Trescothick and of Caddick and Gough could really now haunt the English. England at the best of times would have struggled to keep the formidable Indian battling line-up to modest totals, but now doing this does seem unlikely.
Equally though, India have a similar problem as their bowling attack seems
quite ordinary compared to the batting section. This series looks set to be
dominated by the batsmen, and with English pitches playing well this season
(with the typical exception of Headingley – venue for the third Test), high scoring draws look to be the most likely scenario. However, I doubt very much that all of the four Tests will be drawn, and the side to win a Test match will be the side whose batsmen will not give their wickets away.
I would avoid backing the hosts as the odds are poor value and England's depleted bowling attack could suffer heavily against the Indian batsman. Before we learned of the injuries, England were a respectable 11/10 to win the series, but now are only 5/4 with their best three players probably out for the series. Consequently though, the Indian price of 11/4 for the series that now hangs in the balance, suddenly appeals. |
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