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Whilst some may tell you that the real action in this year’s rugby calendar does not get under way until October on the other side of the Tasman Sea, they have clearly failed to see the significance of this fixture. Sure, a World Cup only comes around every four years. This fixture is far more rare. Since the first World Cup was first held in 1987, England have played just two test matches against New Zealand in New Zealand. In this period, four World Cups have been decided
It is one, perhaps the only one, fixture that maintains a real air of mystery. The All Blacks for so long symbolised a passion for their national sport that nobody could ever come close to. The silver fern ran far deeper than England’s rose, or so it seemed. With the advent of the annual Tri-Nations, Australia and South Africa may feel that sense less fervently. England now have the chance to conquer the myth themselves. Clive Woodward and his men have not come to pay respect to anyone, they have come to win, and settle a score along the way.
For all of England’s successes in the last few years, this is the one question that can be, and has been, levelled at them; “How do you think you would get on against a major team on their patch?” It is a fruitless ponderance of course, but has served to buy time for those nations until such a moment as the men in white tour south again. That time is now upon us. The World Cup may throw up such an encounter, but it will not be against the All Blacks in New Zealand.
The timing is significant. These two are ranked as number one and number two in the world, the winner on Saturday securing the top spot in the Zurich rankings. England are Grand Slam winners and champions of the northern hemisphere. New Zealand are the holders of the Tri-Nations crown and few would doubt their status as being the best from south of the equator.
England won their encounter at Twickenham last November, but that was their first victory in seven attempts. Only once has a test match in New Zealand gone their way, and that was a shock win back in 1973. The four chances they have had since then have seen a cumulative total thrashing of 164 – 60 in the home nation’s favour.
The last two of these were in 1998, when Clive Woodward took what was largely a development squad on the now dubbed tour of hell. His young charges faced all three of the southern giants and returned with what looked like irreparably damaged egos and pride. That tour though, probably did more to test the character of the personnel involved than any number of triumphs over lower ranked European teams can do.
Matt Dawson led the team with his head held high and has retained his status as first choice scrum half virtually ever since. An injury has ruled him out this time, but to win would mean as much to him as any of the players involved. The only survivor in the back line then, is Josh Lewsey. His development has taken time, but his attitude is similarly stoic. The emergence of Jason Robinson put his international progress back by at least two seasons, but having been given a chance in the Six Nations, the number fifteen shirt is now in his possession, and his form with England and Wasps suggests it will remain so for some time. Graham Rowntree is the only other survivor who will take the pitch on Saturday.
It is amazing that England have seven players with forty or more caps in their starting fifteen, and not one of them has represented their country on New Zealand soil. Fantastic perhaps, that even at this stage of their careers, the likes of Leonard and Johnson can still find brand new experiences to drive them on.
The average number of caps for Clive Woodward’s men is 42, whilst for New Zealand, it is 17. This could be a telling actor, and all the knowledge acquired in the various rugby coliseums of the planet will be needed to prosper in the Westpak Stadium or ‘Cake Tin’ in Wellington, a venue where, surprise surprise, England have not played before.
New Zealand have only played there four times, and since losing the first of these to Australia, have won the remainder. South Africa, Fiji and France have been the victims. The playing surface is reportedly quick, and the staid attitude of the Kiwi’s is that the abrasive men form the north do not know how to run with ball in hand, giving a huge advantage to them. However, as Woodward pointed out earlier this week, England play their best rugby in fast, dry conditions. Let us hope that the deluge which reduced the options for the warm up match with the Maoris is not repeated. The last thing anyone needs is for more excuses to be readily at hand.
The players that stand out in New Zealand’s pack are the locks, Ali Williams and Chris Jack, and the open side Richard McCaw. They will be key to their retaining possession of all phases, and McCaw in particular will need a massive game if he is to have a determining impact on England’s Holy Trinity. Richard Hill is probably the best back row forward in world rugby, whilst Dallaglio the carrier and Back the digger need no further words.
Justin Marshall will be pivotal at scrum half, as his position implies. With 60 caps to his name, the decisions he makes will be important especially if he elects to use the man outside him, Carlos Spencer. The occasionally maverick fly half has long been known to possess masses of talent, and has now made himself into the indisputable first choice number ten following a commanding season leading the Blues to Super XII glory.
His battle with Jonny Wilkinson should be fascinating. Spencer certainly has the edge when running the ball, although Wilkinson is not too far behind. JW is a better kicker, from hand and tee, and his defensive quality is remarkable for a man in his position. He wants to be careful not to be too keen in his pursuit of Spencer though, for it is in drawing men in that the Aucklander seems able to best create space for those around him.
It is outside them though that we feel England should have the edge. The all dreadlocked Wellingtonian centre partnership of Tana Umaga and Ma’a Nonu may win the style awards, but in Greenwood and Tindall they face a classical pair of centres. Nonu gets his first cap, but marking Greenwood is a tough prospect for any man. The Harlequins stalwart has a rugby intelligence which picks out incisive lines that are difficult to anticipate even for those with years of experience. He is always thinking five steps ahead, whether that be with the ball still in his grasp, or in the hands of the man he has just set free. Umaga has been switched to inside centre for only the second time in his career but his burly style is matched by Tindall who will not give an inch. The Bath man is solidity personified and can bury himself forward as combatively as he can halt any advances. The England backs have a tendency to mix things up to such an extent as the Kiwis’s could be lining up against any one of them at any stage of the match. For Nonu in particular, and Joe Rokocoko, another first cap winner on the wing, this will throw up a set of problems not before seen.
We fancy Mike Tindall is a good bet to be first try scorer, and his odds of 20/1 appeal. Sandwiched between two fantastic play makers in Wilkinson and Greenwood, Tindall is the obvious man to benefit from any half breaks or space created. Six times he has crossed the line for England, and with the inexperience of some of the NZ backs this could well be lucky seven. Doug Howlett has been put at full back, and although electric in attack, defence is a potential weakness. Positioning is all important for the number fifteen, and if this is not up to scratch, a clean through Tindall could find himself unchallenged to the try line.
This is New Zealand’s first match since playing Wales last November, and there have been changes made. The Super XII was a success for their teams though and with the Tri Nations just around the corner and then the World Cup there is no time for warm ups. And just how much they want to win this match is clear. They have a real abhorrence for all things English, and defeat in this one may just force their media to open both their eyes. For all of England’s supposed arrogance, New Zealand have never been able to accept that anybody could be better than them. We do not expect that to change externally and the excuses would be flowing through the pressroom, but the internal damage would be done.
We believe they will lose. In virtually every area of the pitch we give England the edge and there are very few positions in which we could imagine Woodward wanting to swap personnel with John Mitchell. England have a unity that has a determined focus and a real desire to conquer all who stand in their path. They are not used to losing, and we do not think that will change. Over the last two years they have answered every question asked of them, and it would be positively churlish to doubt that they have the ability to do so again.
One other point. Without getting ahead of ourselves, (or is it too late for that?!) England are still available at 10/3 to win the World Cup. If they win this match as we are predicting, those odds will be a thing of the past.
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| Betting Verdict |
4 pts England to win at 21862087
The far more experienced side with a hunger to settle a score, an impressive unity that can thrive against adversity, and who are in the habit of winning.
1 pt Mike Tindall to be first try scorer at 21872910
With Wilkinson on one side, and Greenwood on the other, Tindall is the obvious choice to benefit from their ability to make space. Generous looking odds.
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