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KIWIS IN A SPIN
James Millman, readaBet.com
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Following the extraordinary 1st Test in Christchurch, England travel to Wellington with a 1-0 lead in the three match series. As far as the bookmakers are concerned – the tourists are almost certain to return home with the series won (2/5).
New Zealand’s task in recovering from the first Test loss is made all the harder due to the chronic shortage of fit bowlers. Chris Cairns joins Shane Bond and Dion Nash on the sidelines and Daniel Vettori is nowhere near 100% fit. The left arm spinner is hoping to play after making a partial recovery.
The inexperience of the Kiwis attack was brutally exposed by Graham Thorpe and Andrew Flintoff in a 2nd innings partnership that won the tourists the Christchurch Test. Call ups for Chris Harris (15 wickets at 67 runs apiece) and Darryl Tuffey won’t exactly have the English batsman worrying too much.
England have the comparatively minor worry of Butcher not being fit for the Test. But with the hosts’ lack of quality bowling, England’s top order will see the Wellington Test as a potential run feast.
Whilst the tourists should certainly tuck in to their opponents bowling, it remains to be seen whether Astle has left any psychological scars on Andrew Caddick and Mathew Hoggard.
The ground for this Test is expected to again have a grass covering; it should also offer some more assistance for the spin bowlers. Ashley Giles will hope he can improve on his one wicket so far in the Series. The left arm spinner is 7/2 to be the top English bowler in this Test. Should Caddick and Hoggard once again succumb to some lusty hitting, Giles will be the one Hussain turns to steady the ship.
The Wellington Test has not always had fond memories for the Kiwis. Their recent record on the ground shows they have only beaten Bangladesh and West Indies, drawn with Zimbabwe and lost to the Australians and South Africans. England have enough talent among their ranks to at least equal the achievements of Zimbabwe’s draw.
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| Betting Verdict |
2pts Giles to be top English bowler at 7/2.
Due to the inexperienced nature of the home bowling attack, it is very hard to see how England will be dismissed twice. However, as England were taken in the Series preview to win at 2/1, it might be wise to avoid backing a second successive Test victory, especially when the weather in this part of the world can be changeable.
A bet that does look worth pursuing is Ashley Giles to be the top English bowler. The left arm spinner has shown his class by taking numerous wickets on the sub-continent. Any hint of spin in the pitch should have Giles twitching his fingers with delight.
A decision needs to be made on Messer’s Caddick and Vettori, whom were the main focus of the Series preview. The Somerset bowler was forecasted to take more than 11 wickets in the series, while Vettori was anticipated to total more than 10.5 wickets.
Andrew Caddick’s nine wickets in the first innings has meant a jump in his total series wickets quote by several notches. SportingIndex believe Caddick will now finish with a total of 17-18 wickets. It would be possible to sell at 17 and take a profit having originally bought at 11 with IG. I am prepared though to let this trade run and see what kind of damage Caddick can do in the second Test.
Daniel Vettori is, however, a completely different story. The left arm spinner struggled in the first Test with a back injury and is not certain to play in the 2nd Test. IG are the only firm not to have suspended the Vettori market and are quoting the spinner to take 5-6 wickets in the remaining tests.
The options are to hope Vettori recovers sufficiently from injury to play a role in the 2nd and 3rd Tests or he is ruled out of the remaining games (players must play 2 Tests for bets to stand).
Although there is the temptation to cut the losses by selling at 5 with IG, I am prepared to take the risk on one of the above options working out. The decision is made easier with Caddick performing so well and England looking good for a Series win. |
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