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The fourth round of the FIA Formula 1 Championship marks the start of the European season after the first three fly away races. The venue being the fantastic Imola Circuit which consists of hard acceleration zones, tight chicanes followed by long straights, big kerbs and fast corners demanding a good all round car. This is a combination which will suit any team with a well balanced car, good traction control systems (Renault) and powerful engines (BMW).
The one overriding characteristic of Imola is the fanatical tifosi, the Italian fans who are literally mad for Ferrari and want nothing but a victory from the scarlet cars. Their hero is understandably Michael Schumacher, the man who has led Ferrari back into the winners circle and given them their first World Championship since 1979. Expectations will be as high as ever, especially after Michael’s victory in Brazil two weeks ago marking the new Ferrari F2002’s debut.
Ferraris main competition this season has always been provided by the Williams BMW’s of Ralf Schumacher and Juan Pablo Montoya. Expect the situation to be the same at Imola where the BMW engine should feel at home on the long straights peppered around the circuit. Indeed Ralf took his maiden F1 victory here last season beating his brother fair and square, and has a more than fair shot at doing it again.
The big talking point will undoubtedly be the rivalry between Montoya and Michael, which resulted in a collision in Brazil, and with the Ferrari and Williams so closely matched in terms of performance it is likely to continue this weekend. It is situations like this when the brilliance of Michael Schumacher really becomes apparent, he has succeeded in winding Montoya up with on and off track performances, and as a result his closest rival in terms of ability cost himself 6 points in Brazil by attempting a stupid move into the second corner on the opening lap, he would do well to remember the old adage ‘races cannot be won on the first lap, only lost….’
The Mclaren/Renault battle looks set to continue this weekend with both cars seemingly identically matched in Brazil, although when considering the style of track, it would appear that the Renault will be better suited to the hard acceleration zones abundant in Imola, this added to their ability to make lightening starts puts them in good shape for the race. Button is a driver offering excellent value at 66/1 for the win as is team mate Trulli also 66/1, so an each way punt could be the way to go, especially considering Imola's reputation as a car breaker which should clear the way for one of them.
Of the rest of the field nothing really jumps out as being a threat to the now established front runners, if anything the gap between the sharp end of the field and the mid field runners seems to have grown again this season making shock results highly unlikely.
The outcome of the race will likely depend upon the tyre situation, last year the Michelin shod runners (Williams) definitely held the upper hand and allowed Ralf to score a debut win. Expect the situation to be the same again this weekend if track temperatures remain high. A quick look at the odds available and Ralf for the win at 4/1 looks the best value, assuming Michael Schumacher (6/4) struggles on the wrong tyres and gets caught up in the seemingly inevitable battle with Montoya (11/4). Although realistically it is likely to be very close with pit stop strategies becoming very important.
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