Senegal v Turkey
TEMPERS TO FLARE
Mark Lever, readaBet.com
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2002-06-22
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This game contested between two of world football’s minnows really is a game of destiny. Both countries have already exceeded their pre-tournament expectations by reaching the quarter-finals but one of these teams must win to progress to the semis and will send their football-crazed nation into hysteria.
It is Senegal though, who have particularly impressed, as no one expected this African side to barely win a point at this World Cup. Once they were drawn against France, Denmark and Uruguay everyone predicted their early downfall and when it came to the opening game of the tournament, the world expected a French rout. However, the Senegalese tore up this script when they won a memorable encounter.
On the day, the competition debutants were the deserved victors as they outshone the French in every department. The defence kept French chances down to a minimum, the midfield harried the World Champion’s stars into surrendering possession, and up front, El Hadji Diouf especially caused the French defence no end of problems. This result though was no one-game-wonder.
Against a well-drilled, hard to break down Denmark side, Bruno Metsu’s side drew 1-1 but looked by far the more purposeful team as they had thirteen shots on goal of which seven were on target, whilst the Senegal defence restricted Denmark to a total of just six shots on goal. Then against Uruguay, Senegal’s attacking flair was there for all to see as they took a three-goal advantage.
However, it has not been total plain sailing for Senegal, as too often their defence actually appears to be fragile and their progression through the tournament has not come without a healthy dose of luck. Firstly, despite their deserved win over France, the French hit the woodwork twice as well as missing a few golden opportunities. Secondly, against Uruguay, the defence capitulated in the second half, and were fortunate to only concede three goals as the Uruguayans created double the number of scoring chances.
Then, in an evenly matched game versus Sweden, Senegal just scrapped through with a mis-hit Golden Goal that came off the post, after Sweden had had more than 25 shots on goal including a shot to rebound into play after hitting the outside of the post. So whilst the Senegalese do pose a deadly attacking threat, they do not seem to have a particularly secure defence.
Turkey meanwhile, come into this game with mixed form behind them. The 2002 World Cup got off to a slow start for Turkey as they only managed the one point from their first two games, but the Turks will be boosted by the fact that they have comfortably won their last two games.
Despite losing their first game of the tournament to Brazil, Turkey actually had an impressive performance, where they kept Brazilian chances down to a minimum, looked comfortable on the ball and managed to carve out some decent efforts on goal. It only took a dubious penalty decision to give Brazil the victory. In their next game against Costa Rica, Turkey under performed in a dour game where the Costa Ricans fully deserved their point.
Turkey ensured their qualification to the last sixteen by beating China 3-0 in what was essentially an easy game. But the Turks saved their best performance of the World Cup so far for their match against Japan. The Turkish players put in an unspectacular but thoroughly professional performance - they look an early lead through a corner then never looked like surrendering that advantage as all the Japanese skill and pressure was absorbed without much threat, and also the mental strength of the Turkish players must be credited as they were unaffected by the partisan crowd.
The tournament has already been a bit of a roller coaster for Turkey as they have combined poor football, bad results, problems with the Turkish media and internal politics with some attractive attacking play, dogged defence and good results. But the upshot of all this is that Turkey now have a fantastic chance to reach the World Cup semi-finals if they can just turn it on against Senegal. |
| Betting Verdict |
8pts 60 or more bookings points at 11/8 (SportingOdds)
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The bookies are unable to separate these teams as they are both quoted at 7/4 to win and the draw is 21/10 - this is probably fair as there is little to differentiate these sides. I would tend to err on the side of Turkey though, as they look to be more secure at the back than Senegal and at their best they are a better all-round football team than the African nation. Plus also, the game is an evening kick-off, which will assist the Turks as Senegal, a couple of times in this World Cup have been the better side once their opposition has wilted in the afternoon sun.
However, the best betting avenue to explore for this game is on the bookings front. Out of all the quarterfinals this one looks the most likely to turn nasty at some stage. The pre-match comments have not been of a good nature, which only adds to the tension of the game. Both teams have already shown in earlier games they are not adverse to the odd rash challenge and with a Columbian official in charge, it shouldn’t take too much to get booked.
The Spreads firms are also anticipating a bookings fest. This is reflected in the mid-sixties quote being offered. I wouldn’t put anyone off buying on the Spreads, but I will content myself with a simple Fixed Odds bet. SportingOdds offer 11/8 for 60 or more bookings points (yellow/10pts, red/25pts). Four cautions and one sending off would be enough to cover this – note one player can score up to 35 points. |
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