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Zurich Premiership Playoff Final
Johnny O'Shea, readaBet.com
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2003-05-31
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GLOUCESTER V WASPS (Sat, 15.30) |
A domestic season which began in August will finally be concluded this Saturday, in the Zurich Premiership Grand Final. The two sides that have qualified for the right to contest the championship, are Gloucester and Wasps. Seeing as these two clubs were first and second in the league table this is surely the way it should be.
Wasps defeated Northampton in the semi final by 19-10 in a hard fought encounter. Alex King’s kicking has not always been the most reliable, but there has been a marked improvement this season, and it was certainly the driving force behind that victory. It will be an important aspect of the final also.
The very fact that they have to prove themselves at all will be a point of consternation for Gloucester. It is the first time that the team finishing top of the table at the resumption of all regular season games may not be crowned champions. Victory, should it come, would be even sweeter therefore.
They have had three weeks off since their last match together, and so there can be no excuses for lack of freshness. However, it could also mean they suffer through rustiness and this is the most likely scenario in our opinion. In the time that they have been resting Wasps have played twice, and won twice. As well as the match with Northampton, they also beat Bath by 48-30 in the Parker Pen Challenge Cup Final.
These games extended a phenomenal run that has seen the Wycombe based side lose just once in fourteen matches. Such momentum will be tough to halt, although in Gloucester they face the side they lost to fifteen matches ago. That 17-24 defeat at Kingsholm virtually mirrors the 23-16 win they managed over the cherry and whites at Adams Park in October. On neutral territory, this game becomes extremely difficult to call.
The extension to the season has meant that Phil Vickery is now available for selection. The prop played his first 80 minutes since November last Saturday, when captaining England against the Barbarians, also at Twickenham.
Different sides have peaked at different stages of the season. Gloucester began much the strongest, and had their final place all but assured by Christmas. Sale Sharks played some of the best rugby in the middle phase of the season, but the end of the campaign belonged to Wasps. Despite the fact that the cherry and whites finished fifteen points ahead of them overall, in the last six matches the Londoners have actually had the edge. They have won five to Gloucester’s six, and have a points difference of +57 as opposed to +48.
Nigel Mellville’s men have already had a match at Twickenham this season, and came away victorious in the Powergen Cup Final. This may be an advantage, but Wasps are no strangers to the home of rugby, and have a side packed full of internationals and big match players. Nobody better defines that description than Lawrence Dallaglio. His form towards the end of the season has been as good as ever, and the back row partnership with Paul Volley and Joe Worsley has been a critical part of their success. All three are in the latest England squad.
Both of Gloucester’s top try scorers are forwards and this says something about their dominance up front. Flanker Jake Boer tops the list with nine, and was named Zurich Premiership player of the season. Next on this list is James Forrester, but the number eight is injured for this fixture. Wasps are probably the side that are best equipped to deal with this forward threat. Simon Shaw has been in inspired form of late, winning the player of the month award and the quality of the back row has already been mentioned.
In the back lines, once again there is plenty of talent on view. Rob Howley is arguably the best scrum half in the business and Andy Gomarsall will struggle to cope with him. There are two other contests in particular that catch the eye behind the scrum. At inside centre, Henry Paul will be coming face to face with Stuart Abbott and a place in the England world cup squad could well go to one of them. Abbott would seem to hold the current advantage having been selected for the Antipodes tour, rather than the American Tour that Paul is on.
Josh Lewsey and James Simpson-Daniel will probably be on the wings, and this will also be a fascinating contest with regard to England. Lewsey currently looks the likely first choice full back for the national side, but Simpson-Daniel could well have a part to play down under. Points are there to be proved.
Man for man there is little to choose between the teams, but the extra unity that comes from playing big matches together should work in favour of Wasps. Having already secured Heineken Cup rugby for next season and won the Parker Pen Challenge Cup, this match offers a wonderful opportunity to win the league for the first time since the 1996/1997 season. It would really be an unexpected bonus. For Gloucester the opposite is true. They have led the league all year, and will feel this title is owed to them. This is a dangerous approach to adopt, and the extra pressure could well work against them. All in all there are several factors that make us think Wasps can win. We advised backing them to win the Playoffs before their match with Northampton, when available at 3/1. If you missed out on that price, then the 2/1 on offer still looks on the generous side. |
| Betting Verdict |
2 pts Wasps to win Zurich Championship Playoff Final at
Have gained excellent momentum and the winning habit, Wasps will be hard to stop. Gloucester have not played a match for three weeks.
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