Big Brother 3
TOP MARKS FOR SPENCER
Alistair Flutter, readaBet.com
View Betting Verdict
|
2002-05-26
|
Big Brother Preview |
Click here for Best Big Brother Odds.
Forget the World Cup. The real betting event of the summer is Big Brother 3. With a new house and twelve new contestants, there will be plenty of betting opportunities over the next nine weeks, and plenty of bookmakers have prices up already.
After some great betting on the first series, Big Brother 2 was slightly disappointing as it was obvious to everyone after about three weeks that gay air steward Brian was going to win. Let's hope that this year's event keeps
us guessing a bit longer.
A couple of general points to bear in mind about betting on this year's Big
Brother:
1. The two past series have both been won by men, and this trend has tended to be followed in most countries where Big Brother has been held. Current quotes for gender of the winner make the guys nearly twice as likely to win as the girls.
2. Most of the people who vote are women. This may account for the fact that men usually win, but also means that sex appeal is more important for the
men in the house than it is for the women. In the first series, the most
attractive girl (Sada) was thrown out at the first attempt (although, to be fair, she was incredibly irritating).
3. Although the housemates don't know it yet, the first week sees the public nominating two of them for eviction and the people in the house choosing which of those two to throw out.
4. Most of the bookies are going a fifth the odds a top three finish, and this makes each way betting poor value. The few bookmakers offering a quarter the odds are worth looking at for an each way bet, but a better alternative to an outright win bet might be a play on the spreads (see spread betting verdict for further details).
I'm writing this article on Sunday afternoon, nearly 48 hours after the contestants entered the house, and already there's a fair bit to go on. Here's a brief description of each of the protagonists:
Alex (23) is a model from Essex and bears a passing resemblance to Brad Pitt. He is popular with the girls in the house, and is also likely to be a hit with the ladies on the outside. On the downside, he goes to bed early and complains about the noise that the others make when he's trying to go to
sleep. This should be less of a problem after Friday when Jade is the first
to get thrown out (see below), and Alex is a contender for the win but I wouldn't want to back him at 6/1 joint favourite.
Jonny (29) is a Geordie fireman. He likes smoking, drinking, cross-dressing, and although he may be popular with some of the ladies he comes across as too arrogant to win it. I've already opposed him on the spread betting markets, and he makes little appeal at about 8/1.
Lee (21) is the muscle man of the series. He is afitness instructor from Leicester who looks somewhat like Mike Tyson. He doesn't drink, and has already been running workout sessions for the girls. He may be quite popular in the house and could go a long way, although he doesn't have the nice guy "man of the people" image required to win. The bookmakers make him a total no-hoper at 25/1, and I fail to see why he is so much less fancied than all the other blokes.
PJ (22) is a trainee solicitor from Birmingham, and fancies himself as a ladies' man. He says he did Big Brother partly because he thinks it will
give him a better chance of pulling a celebrity when he gets out. He's about 10/1, but although he could win it I'd prefer to wait for a bit before backing him to see how his flirting goes down with the girls in the house. If they don't like it, he could be in for an early bath.
Sandy (43) is from Fife and arrived in the house wearing a kilt. He is a "personal shopper" (he claims this involves dressing women for a living), and is easily the oldest in the house. He's married with kids, and although he's a nice enough chap and will stay for some time, I can't see a family man like him winning it. He's about 10/1, but if you fancy him to do well you'd be better off buying on the spreads.
Spencer (22) works in a ski shop in Cambridge and likes smoking, juggling and sleeping. His lie-ins have caused mumbling round the house, but Darren did okay in the first series despite spending half the time in bed, and with nine weeks of competition to go he may well be doing the smart thing. He's laid back, is unlikely to offend anyone, and deserves to go well. I'm
kicking myself for missing the 8/1 yesterday, but have had a bit of the 7/1
with Ladbrokes today.
Adele (23) is a PA during the day and a DJ at night. She's been quite quiet in the house, but she is unlikely to have offended anyone and may come out of her shell as the number of people dwindles. She looks decent value at
16/1 until you remember that women have to be more than just inoffensive to win it, and if Anna (the nicest person on Big Brother so far) couldn't win the first series then Adele probably can't win this one.
Alison (26) is a larger than life lass from Birmingham. She has a bubbly
personality and enjoys a laugh. She will offend nobody, and may well be popular in the house. Although she is probably not good enough to win it at around 10/1, she could survive a good while.
Jade (20) is an intensely annoying dental nurse from South London. She has mood swings and is annoying everyone in the house and the entire country by being generally too loud. Everybody I've spoken to about Big Brother in the last two days has singled her out as extremely irritating, and she's also had a blazing row with Sunita (in which she was rightly accused of not listening and being young and naive). She is going to be first out by a landslide, and even at odds like 4/7 with Paddy Power you could do worse than pick up some free money by backing her to be first out. For her to stay in the house beyond the weekend will require someone else to do something genuinely bad.
Kate (22) is the best looking girl in the house. She works out, dances,
drinks beer and is generally a good person to have around. She'll be popular
with the public, and also has the backing of the Sun newspaper. She worries
me occasionally by failing to be quite laid back enough (she nearly had a heart attack on day one when she thought there was no loo roll in the house) but certainly has a chance. If a women is to win it this time, Kate is the most likely out of the ladies to prevail.
Lynne (36) is a student from Aberdeen. The bookies don't fancy her at all, and although I don't see much wrong with her she doesn’t look to have enough going for her to win it.
Sunita (25) is a Barrister from London. She's a vegetarian, and always seems to say what she thinks. I like her, but I suspect she will end up being too
confrontational and too well educated to appeal to the guy in the street. Her argument with Jade won't have done her any harm, but it may be only a matter of time before she has a run-in with someone else, at which point her popularity could hit rock bottom. I wouldn't want to back her at about 12/1.
Who do you think will do well in Big Brother. |
| Betting Verdict |
FIXED ODDS VERDICT
2 points win Spencer at 7/1 with Ladbrokes
1 point win Kate at 6/1 with Bluesq
2 points Jade to be evicted first at 4/6 with Paddy Power
Click here to open a Ladbrokes account.
Click here to open a Bluesq account.
Click here to open a Paddy Power account.
So there you have it. Remember, a lot can happen in nine weeks and the early
favourites can fall out of favour fast. For this reason we shouldn’t go overboard with our bets as potentially more lucrative opportunities will arise during the next few weeks.
The people to be with are the ones who won't offend anyone and who are laid back enough to see the whole thing through. With the men having a definite head start, the one to be with is Spencer. He's inoffensive and laid back, but lively enough to keep the public interested. A small punt on the bookies favourite, Kate, is also advised at this early stage. For the first eviction, look no further than the hugely unpopular Jade.
SPREAD BETTING VERDICT
0.5pts Buy Lee at 6 with SportingIndex
Click here to open a SportingIndex account.
SportingIndex is running a 60-40-30-20-10-5 index, and with three point spreads offers pretty good value for both backing and opposing contestants.
As I mentioned earlier I fail to see why the bookies don’t rate Lee. The girls are not going to want to vote him out, while he is ensuring their fitness for the next few weeks. This should ensure he at least stays in the house for a good chunk of the show, and the longer he lasts the higher is quote will go. Remember with Spread Betting you can close a bet at anytime which should allow us to take a sizeable win on Lee well before the end of Big Brother. His quote is already on the rise and that can only be a good sign. |
|
