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Eurovision Song Contest
Alistair Flutter, readaBet.com
Click here for Eurovision Song Contest Best Odds
View Betting Verdict
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2003-05-24
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TAKE A CHANCE ON POLAND |
If you fancy having a bet on this year’s Eurovision Song Contest but can’t be bothered to listen to all the songs in advance, don’t worry! We’ve put ourselves through the ultimate ordeal and listened to them all for you, so you can have a bet, go down the pub and get back in time to enjoy the results being read out, without ever having to listen to the song you’ve bet on.
As usual, the most important thing to remember is that the quality of the songs is not the most important factor in deciding the winner. The voting is highly political, and there are a few groups of countries that tend to vote for each other while other countries would never vote for each other in a million years. With the break up of the Soviet Union, the eastern bloc countries now enjoy a stronger block voting advantage than ever, whilst the Scandinavian countries also benefit from back-scratching and Greece and Cyprus are guaranteed 12 points from each other as always.
The second most important aspect is whether the performance contains something a bit different to make it stand out. Obviously the song can help in this regard, but it’s more a question of whether the people performing it put on a memorable show. Last year the unfancied Latvian entry won largely by virtue of the singer taking most of her clothes off, and although it’s not always easy to guess in advance which acts might do something a bit different, we can at least make educated guesses.
The quality of the songs comes a distant third in determining the result, but again it’s fair to say that the main thing we’re looking for is something that stands out from the crowd. The hackneyed Eurovision formula is naff pop songs by bands with female lead singers. Anything that falls into this category has a lot of work to do to attract people’s attention and get their vote.
As usual most bookies are offering stingy each way terms of a quarter the odds for a top three finish, so Sporting Odds deserves a special mention for offering a quarter the top four.
Below I’ve given a brief summary of each country’s entry this year, along with some form pointers and ideas about how likely they are to be the beneficiary of political voting. The latter is based mainly on average scores for each country since the familiar 12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system was introduced in 1975.
Austria: Unspeakably bad offering from a band whose male lead singer can’t sing, can’t dance, and sounds more like he’s singing a football song. Austria has a poor record at the best of times, and this looks likely to score very poorly. Unfortunately, at 200/1 the bookies seem to have gauged its potential pretty accurately.
Belgium: Quite promising atmospheric number, but Belgium has a poor record so it’s difficult to get too excited about its prospects.
Bosnia-Herzegovina: Respectable pop song by 19 year old female artist and certainly better than most, although the country has a fairly poor record in its eight appearances, with only Croatia really seeming to favour it.
Croatia: 16 year old girl sings reasonable song but is somewhat let down by amateurish backing vocals. The country has a good record with Malta and Slovenia tending to give it plenty of votes, and not as much of a no-hoper as the 100/1 price tag suggests.
Cyprus: Good-looking male solo artist sings fair but not brilliant pop song. The country’s record in the event is below average despite the automatic head start of 12 points from Greece every year, so unlikely to be in contention.
Estonia: Talented group of five guys performs quite catchy song, They’re perhaps a bit too college-type to appeal to the masses, but Estonia’s record in the event is excellent and this has to be given a good chance.
France: One of the better songs in the competition, sung by female solo artist with piano and strings backing. Surprisingly successful country in this event and might get some of the pacifist vote this year as well. Also happens to be best price with Sporting Odds, so with the enhanced place terms this is a tempting bet.
Germany: Quite catchy song by cheery 40 year old woman with bright orange dyed hair. Again, might get some votes from the pacifists, and the Germans tend to perform reasonably if not brilliantly in this event.
Greece: Another quite good song performed by a talented blonde who sings some very high notes, but Greece tends to do quite badly despite the mandatory 12 points from Cyprus.
Iceland: 23 year old female single reasonable but unremarkable pop song. Usually gets solid support from Sweden but doesn’t otherwise attract many votes and certainly no value in its position among the favourites.
Ireland: Fairly dull song by male solo artist with guitar and pipes for backing, but it’s a bit different and the Irish always have a chance, being a pretty popular bunch of people.
Israel: Did very poorly last year despite having a very good peace anthem as an entry, and it’s safe to say that although Israel historically does well in this event it cannot do so in the current political climate however good the song is. This year’s effort is fast and tries to be catchy, but I didn’t like it and it seems like one to oppose, although at 100/1 the bookies seem to have got the message.
Latvia:One female and two male solo artists got together for this project. The result is a not particularly good pop song that’s unlikely to achieve much on merit. Latvia has only entered three times and, although it won last year, only two countries (good friends Estonia and Lithuania) gave it any points at all in 2001, demonstrating that it’s not the sort of country that will perform well without a good song. Looks one to oppose at the price.
Malta: Female artist sings fairly slow and uninspiring number. Certainly nothing special, although Malta traditionally does well.
Netherlands: 33 year old blonde turns in a good performance of lively song with reasonably catchy tune, although it’s unlikely to stand out from the crowd and the country has only an average record in the event.
Norway: Unpretentious guy plays the piano and sings slow song with string backing. It’s a bit different (the style is vaguely reminiscent of the Alan Parsons Project) and will certainly appeal to some. The country usually gets well supported by Sweden in particular but its overall record is not great.
Poland: Slow peace anthem sung in three languages (Polish, German, Russian). People might well go for this and it could do pretty well. The country doesn’t have a great record, although perhaps surprisingly its scores are often propped up by votes from the Germans and Austrians. Unlikely to win but better than odds of 66/1 suggest.
Portugal: Good female artist let down by boring slow song. Portugal rarely does well and I can’t see many people going for this.
Romania: Has a poor record in the event, and this year’s singer has represented Romania several times before so the signs are not good. The song is okay but not special and is not likely to feature on the leader board.
Russia: Not TATU’s greatest song ever, but Russia’s track record is respectable and you’ve got to think they’re in with a great chance, particularly if the teenage girls turn up the raunchiness on the night. They’ve gone on record saying that they’re going to win, and I reckon they’ll probably do whatever it takes. A bit of kissing is the least we can expect, and the only thing preventing me having a massive bet on them is the fact that it tends to be women that vote, while this is likely to be more popular with the guys. Having said that though, it was the sexy vote that got it last year and despite the short prices Russia is a very worthy favourite.
Slovenia: Good-looking blonde sings average, lively pop song. Will appeal to some and is bound to get votes from Bosnia and Croatia, although its record in the event is quite poor.
Spain: Another fairly ordinary pop song by female solo artist, although she does at least have a bit of character. Spain usually ends mid-table and, as one of the bookies’ favourites behind Russia, looks very opposable this year.
Sweden: Male / female duet separates it from the completely run of the mill stuff and Sweden has a good record, but the song is not great and the two singers aren’t particularly exciting.
Turkey: Turkey has a poor record that and has perhaps irritated the other countries in Europe even more than usual this year. Personally I don’t like the song either and am tempted to oppose it, although a magazine called “City Paper” that was one of the only publications to pick Latvia as the winner last year has rated this song as one of the most likely to win, so make of that what you will.
Ukraine: Reasonable love song with alternating slow and fast bits. This is Ukraine’s first appearance so there’s no form to go on, but it’s in the right part of the world to do okay.
United Kingdom: S Club 7 style pop song by a bunch of idiots with bleached hair. Highly repetitive and entirely unremarkable. The UK’s good record in the event is largely as a result of a good music industry that tends to turn in respectable songs, but the country is not that popular in Europe and in years when the songs have been poor it has tended to do badly. This looks like being one such year. |
| Betting Verdict |
4pts Russia to win at
TATU already have a massive fan base across Europe and their performance is likely to fit the criteria required to win Eurovision, i.e. memorable.
2pt Estonia to win at
Good record in Eurovision and with five guys singing a catchy song, they are sure to attract their fare share of votes
1pt each way France at
Again a good record in Eurovision and the female solo artist will be singing one of the better songs in the competition.
1pt each way Poland at
Singing a peace anthem is likely to prove popular given the state of the world today. At such generous odds there is certainly each-way value to be had. |
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