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The Open Championship
Johnny O'Shea, readaBet.com
Click here for British Open Best Odds
View Betting Verdict
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2003-07-14
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WHO ELS? |
In 1894 The Open Championship moved from Scotland for the first time, and headed for Royal St. George’s on the Kent coast. This week the oldest Championship in the world returns to the venue, also known as Sandwich, for the thirteenth time and golf fans are sure to be treated to a fantastic spectacle.
It is a true links course in the traditional sense. Hidden borrows and slopes, cunningly deceptive approach shots, long carries, dead ground, deep bunkers, but, the most important issue for the players to deal with is the weather. There is so much more to links golf than pure ball striking and mechanical green reading. The elements play a part, and it is the shot makers who generally prevail.
Looking at the list of recent winners vindicates this statement. Messrs Els, Duval, Woods, Lawrie, O’Meara, Leonard, Lehman, Daly and Price, have accounted for the last nine Opens and all are very much in the mould of creative shot makers. Interestingly, it is the only major that has had nine different winners over these nine years, and none of them have won the title on more than one occasion.
The 1993 Open at Sandwich was one of the most exciting in living memory. The scoring was unusually low due to heavy rain before the tournament making the ground much softer than the organisers had hoped. Greg Norman managed to win with a final round of 64 despite missing a twelve-inch putt on the 71st hole, and his -13 total beat Nick Faldo by two strokes. In 1985 the winning total was +2, and in 1981 it was –4.
The course has been lengthened in places and if the wind blows even the best players will find it tough going. In 1981 Jack Nicklaus began the week as favourite with most bookies, but opened with an 83. And who can forget the toils of Tiger Woods in the third round at Muirfield last year. The weather is, as the cliché goes, a great leveller.
There will be birdies to be had, but there will always be plenty of disasters. An ability to put the ball in the right spot is what is needed, and often that means taking distance off the shot rather than simply trying to blast it closer to the green.
Very few players have played in the last three Opens at Sandwich, but when looking at those who have one name immediately stands out. The name is Bernhard Langer, and the record is fantastic. In 1981 he came second with a score of level par, in 1985 the German was third at eleven under, and this result was matched in 1993, when he was ten under. Incredibly Langer has finished in the top three in six Open Championships, but has never actually won the Claret Jug. At 45 his best years may be behind him, but he remains very capable of mixing with the best. Mark O’Meara was considered old when winning at Birkdale aged 41 but with Langer at 125/1, you may be tempted to have an each way pop. Last year he came 28th, his worst in four years, following from a third place in 2001, eleventh in 2000 and 18th in 1999. His form this year has been solid as usual, and his 23rd at the European Open two weeks ago included a 67 which proved he is still capable of low scoring. If he were to win, he would be the oldest champion since Old Tom Morris in 1867 and that may seem unlikely, but a small each way wager has to be advisable.
Such is the unique nature of the skills required for this tournament, that certain players do tend to prosper regularly. One man for whom this is true is defending champion Ernie Els. Part of the reason for this is his knack for functioning as though unaffected by bad weather. As so many were frittering shots away in the third round last year, The Big Easy kept his composure and placed himself in pole position for the final day. His victory was hardly a surprise though. In the last eleven years, he has seven results in the top ten, and has not finished worse than 28th. His last three showings at the Open read second in 2000, third in 2001, and, of course, the win last year. When last staged at Royal St.George’s in 1993 he came sixth, and became the first player ever to hit four rounds better than 70 at an Open championship.
His form this season does little to detract from these reasons. He set off like a steam train in 2003, winning four tournaments in Europe and America. His run away win last week at Loch Lemon was further confirmation of his excellent form. Fifteen events have been played around the world this year, and he has not finished over par in any one of them. If that record is extended at the Open, Els will not be far away. In European, or jointly, sanctioned events, the world number two has been in the top six in all seven entered.
The only thing that makes us hesitant with Els is the difficulty associated with defending a title, and especially a major title. Nobody has successfully defended the Open since Tom Watson managed in 1982 and 1983. However, we do not see this worrying the laid back South African and there is such a strong case for him other than this. Also, the last seven players who have won the Open at Muirfield, where Els won last year, have claimed the title at least twice in their careers.
Of all the main contenders, Els has the strongest liking for this championship. He is also one of few recent winners of the title who are capable of winning again going by current form. The others are, in our opinion, Justin Leonard, Nick Price, Paul Lawrie, and, of course, Tiger Woods.
Justin Leonard’s flat and concise swing makes him perfectly equipped to deal with windy conditions, and it is not too surprising that he has an Open Championship to his name. That was back in 1997, but he also came as close as a playoff at Carnoustie in 1999. Otherwise his Open performances have not been outstanding, although fourteenth last year was encouraging.
2003 has been fairly fruitful so far, with a win at the Honda Classic in March and a runner up spot at the Colonial held at the end of May being the most notable results. He has not played at Royal St. Gorge’s before, but the last American to win there was a man called Bill Rogers in 1981, a fellow native of Texas. Key to Leonard´s success has been his compact swing, but also his putting, and he tops the US Tour in that area for the year. There would certainly be more surprising winners.
Nick Price’s win came at Turnberry back in 1994, a year after he had been sixth at this venue. They were the glory years for the Zimbabwean, but he still finds himself within the top ten in the world. With a swing very much cut from the same block as Leonard’s, there is very little that can go wrong with it when the blustery conditions hit. His fourteenth place last year was a fine effort, but his fifth place at the recent US Open gives most cause for optimism. Odds of 40/1 can be found, and considering also that he has twice been a runner up in the US this year, an each way bet could be an option worth taking.
Many were surprised when Paul Lawrie emerged from the pack to conquer the monstrous Carnoustie set up in 1999. However, the Scot had grown up playing Links golf, and, once again has one of the most basic, no-nonsense swings around. His penchant for Links golf was confirmed when he won the Dunhill Links Championship in 2001. Other than his win, his best result was a sixth place back in 1993, the last time it was held at Royal St. George’s. That much is interesting, but his golf for this season has not been consistent enough for us to want to follow him this time.
That leaves one man from this particular list, tournament favourite Tiger Woods. For many the greatest pleasure of last year’s Championship was seeing the world number one hacking around in waist high rough with the rain pouring down, and the visible frustration something that golfers of all standards can relate to. Despite this, and the fact he has not done better than 25th since winning at St. Andrew’s in 2000, he remains red-hot favourite with odds of around 3/1. With some bad weather forecast for the weekend we cannot advise going with him, despite his win two weeks ago at the Western Open.
Obviously there are plenty of other contenders that have not won the title within the last decade.
The two winners of the majors that have already happened this year should be taken seriously. Could Mike Weir emulate Mark O’Meara and Tiger Woods and win the Masters and the Open in the same year? The Canadian is in the form of his life, and has won two other titles as well as the first major of the year. His record in the Open is poor, with 37th in 1999 his best of four attempts, but then he has never played as well as he has in 2003. The Masters was far from a fluke, proved by a placed finish at the US Open.
The US Open went to Jim Furyk and few people from the world of golf begrudged him the title. Consistency is his hallmark, and when all others were struggling, Furyk just plugged away, picked up the necessary birdies whilst avoiding disasters and let the pursuers do their best to come to him. It worked, and the man with a swing all of his own, could have just the game to become the seventh American winner of the British Open in nine years. If the bad conditions hit Sandwich, his unruffled nature could come to the fore, and now he has the experience of winning a major he could possibly do so again. Twice he has been fourth although for the last two years the cut has been missed. However, due to his triumph at Olympia Fields the best odds to be found on him are 25/1 and these do not really hold enough appeal for us.
Although the Americans have managed to prosper far more often than the Europeans over recent years, they do not always have anyone else featuring towards the top of the leaderboard apart from the winner. Conversely, the Europeans have had at least one man placed in the top five, for every year since 1990. Last year, the highest placed Americans were in fourteenth position.
Freddie Jacobson had never won a tournament twelve months ago, and was pooled as just another good Scandinavian who is not likely to make inroads to the very top of the game. He arrives in Kent this year with both the Omega Hong Kong Open and the Algarve Open de Portugal trophies in his possession. The Swede also qualified for the US Open and played superbly in tough conditions to come fifth. Since then he has remained in America and competed twice. Eight excellent rounds have seen him come third at the Fed-Ex St. Jude Classic, and eighth at the Western Open. Jacobson is a player on the up and we strongly recommend backing him at 80/1.
Our final selection is Paul Casey. The young Englishman is enjoying his best year to date, and has been featuring strongly in just about all the tournaments he has played in. Two titles went his way earlier in the season, including the much coveted last ever Benson and Hedges Invitational at The Belfry. Recently his form has been impressive too. He came tenth at Loch Lomond last week, finishing with rounds of 68 and 66, and that followed to successive thirteenth places at Gleneagles and the K-Club. These performances convince us that his game is working well enough for him to be a force at Sandwich. Odds of 80/1 are available and he has the right temperament to take a major trophy in our opinion. Of all the young up and coming stars in the world at the moment, Casey could well be the first to take the leap up to join the very best. This week could well be career changing for him, and he is worthy of each way support.
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| Betting Verdict |
4 pts Ernie Els to win at 12/1 with Ladbrokes
Has an outstanding record in The Open, and is playing superbly. Tough to find a case against him.
1 pt Paul Casey each way(1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) at
Has been in solid form and has won twice this year already. His game is in good order and he has the temperament to mount a strong challenge.
1 pt Fredrik Jacobson each way (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) at 66/1 with SportingBet
Twice a winner on tour this year who has been consistently featuring at the top of the leader board in recent weeks.
0.5 pts Bernhard Langer each way (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) at
Has an unrivalled record at Royal St. George´s, three times finishing in the top three.
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