Premiership - Saturday
UNHAPPY WANDERER
James Millman, readaBet.com
View Betting Verdict
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2002-03-22
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Manchester United v Middlesbrough |
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Top of Premiership, top of their Champions League group, Manchester United are making an absolute mockery of anyone who doubted their credentials at the start of the season. It doesn’t seem to matter who Sir Alex Ferguson selects in his team – the result is more or less the same give or take a few goals. A frightening statistic for opposing teams is the 2.4 goals United score on average at Old Trafford.
Middlesbrough have put themselves within touching distance of Premiership survival with a run of games which has seen them lose just three times in 16 outings. Nevertheless, a few more points are still needed if the club are to be totally sure of playing Premiership football next season.
Anything other than a home win would have to be considered a major surprise. |
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2002-03-22
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Sunderland v Southampton |
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Sunderland have scored just 14 times in 15 games at the Stadium of Light; only Leicester and Bolton have scored fewer at home. This is a major reason why the Black Cats are steadily dropping down the division. A few more defeats and relegation will become a distinct possibility. The return from injury of Kevin Phillips and Claudio Reyna cannot come soon enough for Peter Reid. The team is in desperate need of goals and these two players are a likely source of goals.
Gordon Strachan is sure to be fuming after his team could only manage a point at home to struggling Leicester. The extra two points would have put Southampton on the brink of safety. Something that would have been unthinkable in previous years is the fact that the Saints have scored more goals away than at their St Mary's home - 20 goals at home and 17 away. If Southampton are to add to their tally of 20 away goals, they will have to do so without the services of James Beattie.
The return of key players is vital to the Sunderland cause. Phillips may not have been in scintillating form this season, yet he is always a goal threat and that’s something the home team have been missing in several games. |
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2002-03-22
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Charlton v Bolton |
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Bolton, one win in their last 17 League games, need to start winning fast. The bookmakers having stopped taking bets on Leicester to be relegated make Bolton their favourites for the drop. Despite being in the relegation zone, Bolton have scored 20 away goals; only the top five have scored more on their travels. SportingOdds are though trying to tempt punters into backing Bolton not to score at 6/4. Another bet from the same bookmaker that does warrant some decent thought is for a Bolton player to be sent off – detailed analysis can be found in the betting verdict.
Alan Curbishley has no relegation worries and can now ponder the prospects of European football at the Valley next season after Charlton rose to seventh place in the Premiership with their 1-0 success at White Hart Lane last Monday. It is no surprise to see the home team at odds on with the bookies. Potential backers should though be wary of Charlton’s record against the teams from the lower realms of the division. Leicester, Blackburn and Derby have all enjoyed some success against the South Londoners.
The form book says Charlton will win, yet their record against “lesser” teams doesn’t install too much confidence. |
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2002-03-22
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Derby v Everton |
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John Gregory has revived Derby and brought them 10 points from the six games since his return as manager. Following a crucial win at Bolton last weekend, Derby can be classified as the form team out of those in the relegation mire. The Rams boss will also be delighted to see that his new team have beaten Everton four years in a row at home. A further win would in all probability lift the team out of the bottom three.
Everton have also recently installed a new manager at the helm. David Moyes made himself an instant hit with the Everton fans following a 2-1 victory at home to Fulham. The three points has given the club a small amount of breathing space from the drop zone. The former Preston manager has been helped with the return to fitness of Duncan Ferguson. The presence of the tall striker will ease the pressure on the other strikers, as well as cause opposition defences numerous problems with his height.
Even with the return of Duncan Ferguson, Everton arrive at relegation rivals Derby with just one away win, fewer than any other Premiership side on their travels. It may take more than the signing of a bright young manager to improve on this record. |
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2002-03-22
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Ipswich v Aston Villa |
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Ipswich have arguably the worst run-in of the relegation threatened teams. Their last three scheduled games are against Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool. George Burley saw his team win a staggering seven out of eight games before February. That run was followed by four losses and only ended last week after a draw at Newcastle. Fortunately, the manager does have Marcus Bent once again available. Signed for £3 million from Blackburn in November, Bent is now the leading scorer, and much will depend on his goalscoring instincts if Ipswich can stay up.
With three losses from the last five Doug Ellis will be a little annoyed that his new manager, Graham Taylor, has not enjoyed the success of other new managers. The former national boss has infact only managed one win in his second stint at Villa Park, the 2-1 home success over West Ham at Villa Park. Villa will take heart from the fact that they have won on their last four visits to Portman Road. Dion Dublin looks set to make his first start instead of Angle after scoring as a substitute against Arsenal.
Aston Villa are not playing that well despite a spirited fight back against the Gunners last week. Ipswich will, therefore, feel they have an excellent opportunity to win this game and enhance their survival prospects. |
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2002-03-22
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Leicester v Leeds |
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Two recent victories may indicate that Leeds are finally putting an end to their disastrous run of form, which has seen them slip away from both the title race and a Champions League placing. However, a win at Filbert Street could throw the Yorkshire club right back into the hunt for fourth place. With Newcastle involved in a Cup tie and Chelsea facing a tricky fixture at Anfield on Sunday, Leeds may only be two points away from the final Champions League spot going into next week.
Leicester have gone 15 Premiership games without a win, have won just once at home this season, and scored just 21 goals. It can confidently be said that Leicester will be relegated from the Premiership; it’s just a matter of when it will happen. The Foxes, ten points adrift of Derby, must surely now be planning for next year’s assault on division one. Before their inevitable departure from the Premiership scene, Leicester can be expected to contribute to some entertaining games now the pressure is far less.
Robbie Fowler will be looking to add to his increasing tally having scored three in the last two matches, plus three at Filbert Street for his former employers earlier in the season. This should end in a comfortable victory for the away side. |
| Betting Information |
FIXED ODDS VERDICT
5pts Bolton to have a player sent off againt Charlton at 10/1
SportingOdds are offering 10/1 for a Bolton player to be sent off against Charlton. There are a number of reasons why this bet looks superb value.
Firstly, nearly 10% of all red cards shown in the Premiership this season have been awarded to Bolton. Their fully committed style of play has not surprisingly resulted in referees taking action.
Secondly, the likelihood of more Bolton players being sent off in the final stretch of the season can only be enhanced with the club fighting for survival.
Thirdly, on their last visit to the Valley, in September 1999, three players including a Bolton player were sent off.
Fourthly, the referee for Saturday’s match is Chris Foy who in 26 games this season has produced a red card no fewer than nine times.
SPREAD BETTING VERDICT
0.5pts Buy Fowler goal minutes at 31
The fact that Leicester all but down should not result in the team being more relaxed and producing some decent football. The fact that Rio Ferdinand is reportedly struggling with injury should allow the Foxes more opportunities to increase their goal tally of 21. Leeds, of course, should still comfortably win as they have a far superior team. A buy of the total goals at 2.8 (SportingIndex) could easily produce a decent payout.
Robbie Fowler has already rewarded supporters of his goal minutes once at Filbert Street this season. The striker scored in the 5th,43rd and 90th minutes for Liverpool. A similar scenario cannot be ruled out especially as he is now playing for a team that looks to attack at every opportunity. A buy of Fowler’s goal minutes at 31 looks to be a sound investment. |
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