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NBA Championship Final: Game Four
John Murray, readaBet.com
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View Betting Verdict
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2003-06-11
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GAME FOUR SET FOR LOW SCORE |
The San Antonio Spurs are inching towards their second NBA title after snatching back home advantage against the Nets in Game Three. The 84-79 loss for New Jersey on Sunday evening was only their second defeat at The Swamp in this season’s play-offs. If Bryon Scott’s team are to end the West’s recent domination of the finals, then they surely have to win their two remaining home games over the following five days.
Once again the momentum is with the Spurs in this series, but given that neither side has managed to win two on the trot as yet, we shouldn’t pay too much attention to this. Perhaps a more telling statistic in the overall scheme of things is that since 1995, the team that has won Game Three has lifted the trophy.
Just as on Sunday night, the Nets will start Game Four as marginal favourites, but picking a winner is not an easy task. Both teams have blown hot and cold in the opening three games, as has each side’s superstar, Tim Duncan and Jason Kidd. The advantage that the Spurs have is that if Duncan struggles with his game, other team members are more than able to deliver the goods, but New Jersey cannot boast such strength in depth.
While Tony Parker was the hero for the away side at the Continental Airlines Arena, the reason for the Nets’ defeat can be found in another below par performance from Kidd. The team leader suffered another of those nights which New Jersey cannot afford if they are to be champions. In a similar scenario to the first game, the point guard’s shooting was wayward as he made only six shots out of nineteen. Once again, the playmaker failed to get his team’s offence in gear, and this ultimately proved costly.
In our Game One preview, we anticipated a poor day for Kidd, and he duly obliged. In Game Two, we predicted that the All-Star would make a spectacular return to form, and he rewarded readaBet followers with a 30-point haul. Almost without fail this season, Kidd has followed up a bad personal performance with a huge game. The truth is that in the series’ opener, Kidd was affected, like the rest of the team, by the ten days without playing. On Sunday, he was actually in much better shape but just had a bad day with his shooting. If the pattern of his season continues, Kidd can play to form and raise his game again on Wednesday.
The total points market on the spreads with Bethilo is also worth considering. For each match so far, the bookmakers have anticipated the overall points to be in the high 180s. They were pretty much spot on the first time when 190 points were scored, but in the two following games, the totals have been 172 and 163. In fact, in Sunday’s game, the first half total of 63 was the lowest in NBA finals history.
Look back at the two meetings in the regular season and the small make-ups are again apparent – 173 in November and 170 in March. The explanation for these low scores is that both sides are among the best defensively in the NBA. Furthermore, this series has already revealed that if Jason Kidd is sub-standard, then the Nets’ attacking game becomes mediocre. Yet Bethilo do not seem to have taken much notice, quoting the final points to be between 181-184. Should Game Four follow the trend and finish with a 173 make-up (the average from their five clashes so far), anyone backing the total to be less than the starting price of 181 would take an eight-point profit. |
| Betting Verdict |
1pt the total points to be less than 181 with Bethilo
In recent years, defence has been the key to success in the NBA. Therefore it is hardly surprising that our finalists boast two of the best defences in the country. As a result, the final score in their five meetings this season has tended to be low, at an average of 173. Only in the series opener, when both sides defended poorly, has the end result been quite high (190). However, Bethilo has failed to react to this trend, and consequently, there seems little risk in backing the total make-up to be less than 181. |
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