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NBA Championship Final: Game One
John Murray, readaBet.com
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View Betting Verdict
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2003-06-02
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NEW JERSEY NETS @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS |
The San Antonio Spurs start as strong favourites to defeat the New Jersey Jets in the best-of-seven-games NBA Finals, which kick off in the early hours of Thursday morning at the SBC Centre. The Western Conference has held a grip on the NBA title for several years now, but the Nets may put up a better showing for the East this time around in a series showing live on Sky Sports Extra for Sky digital viewers.
It is the common view of pundits and fans alike that teams in the West are significantly superior to their Eastern counterparts, a scenario that was clear for all to see twelve months ago when New Jersey were swept 4-0 by the Lakers in a horribly one-sided contest. Certainly, the Spurs have overcome a far tougher route to reach this stage, ending the three-year dominance of the Lakers in the conference semis and then seeing off many people’s favourites, Dallas, in six games.
Obviously, the Nets can do little but win their games, and they have done that part pretty well, recording ten wins on the trot in the play-offs to sweep both Boston and top Eastern seeds Detroit. However, a look at both teams’ record in the regular season should leave us in no doubt as to who holds the aces; The Spurs were the number one NBA seeds with 60-22, while New Jersey could only manage 49-33, and this came mainly against teams in the East.
For Game One, San Antonio are fancied to win by a margin of 6-9 points. For basketball, this is a fairly high quote, but there are a number of key factors going in the 1999 champions’ favour. While the Spurs’ home form has been impressive if not sensational, their opponents have been disappointing on the road all season. Incredibly for a team that has reached this stage, the Nets lost 24 times away from home in the regular season, including a 14-point loss to these opponents in March.
Furthermore, a telling factor could be that the Nets have not played since 24th May, while San Antonio concluded their series with Dallas over a week later. As sport has shown us in two big finals in the last week – Wasps against Gloucester in the Zurich Premiership Final and the Devils against the Mighty Ducks in the Stanley Cup – there is little advantage in having a lengthy rest from competition. Both the Ducks and the Cherries were soundly beaten following long spells without playing, and the fear is that the Nets will suffer the same fate.
Coach of the year Greg Popovich has a Spurs team at his hands that is commonly regarded as the best in the NBA, and one that would be a worthy winner of the overall title. New Jersey may spring some surprises over the next fortnight, but they appear unlikely to be able to bridge the gulf in class between the two conferences.
In many ways, the series will be seen as a battle between two of the sport’s biggest stars, Tim Duncan and Jason Kidd, the respective leaders of each team. Having recently been named the NBA’s Most Valuable Player for the second year in a row, Duncan’s quality is unquestionable. The power forward has raised his game to an incredible level in these play-offs and seems sure to shine on the biggest occasion of them all – he was MVP in the finals for the Spurs when they won back in 1999.
Without Kidd, it is hard to imagine that the Nets would have made the finals, either this year or last. This in effect will be Kidd’s last hurrah in a New Jersey shirt, since he is almost certain to complete a summer switch to the Western Conference, and probably the Spurs. He steered his team through the previous rounds, upping his game when the situation demanded it, and in his last two outings, the point guard collected 60 points. However, there are doubts as to whether he can make such an impact against the defensively brilliant Spurs, especially as Kidd has been troubled by an ankle injury recently.
Both men will play starring roles at various points in these finals, but it is Duncan who can grab the limelight first of all and hand the Spurs a crucial advantage. As with Shaquille O’Neal now and Michael Jordan in his hey-day, opposing teams accept that they cannot stop Duncan, but merely try to slow him down. Unfortunately for the Nets, the MVP has just got better as each match has gone on, taking his points average to 28 in both the conference semis and finals. |
| Betting Verdict |
1pt Tim Duncan’s total points to be more than 27 with Bethilo
BetHiLo quote Duncan’s total points for the match at 25-27, but the Spurs’ star is capable of more than this, especially in front of the home fans. In the opening two games against the Mavericks, he clocked 40 and 32 points at the SBC Centre, while also scored heavily in the first clash with the Lakers. Expect Duncan to score well once again in a game where the Spurs should justify their billing as favourites.
Something for in-running players to look out for is San Antonio establishing a big lead early on but then for their opponents to claw their way back into the game. This is not wholly unusual for the home side and so initially predicting Spurs to win by more than nine points, but to close out as is possible with Spread Betting once a substantial lead is built up could prove profitable. Another way of looking it is wait for San Antonio to build a big lead and then back against them in anticipation of a comeback. |
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