|
| Wolves | | | | Sheffield Utd | | | | Nottm Forest | | | | Reading | | |
| |
The end of the regular football league season last weekend guaranteed that a select few clubs such as Portsmouth and Leicester would be playing Premiership football next year. However, for sides like Wolves and Sheffield United who missed out on automatic promotion the crucial part to the season is just beginning. After correctly forecasting Portsmouth as Champions, the readaBet.com team will now attempt to identify the club with the best chance of promotion via the Play-Offs.
Many people believe the Play-Offs are a lottery – four teams go into a hat and lady luck pulls out one winner. We have decided to see whether this was true by looking back over the history of the play-offs and attempting to identify any trends that determine what makes a successful play-off team.
Interestingly for Division One in the last seven years, four of the promoted teams have been the side with the best end of season form. The exceptions have been Crystal palace in 1997, Ipswich in 2000 and Birmingham in 2002, although it should be noted these sides had the second best record towards the end of the regular season. Further proof that form does matter is that the best finishers last season, Norwich City, only missed out on promotion after a penalty shoot-out.
These statistics do not bode well for Nottingham Forest who have accrued just 6 points from their final six games. Further bad news for Forest fans is that only on one occasion in the past ten years has a team with less than six points from their last six games been promoted via the play-offs. Given Sheffield United have finished the season well, it is reasonable to assume the Blades will be one of the teams contesting the division one play-off final.
As for the other finalist and most likely club to win the final Premiership place – we believe Wolves are the team to follow. In the last six games of the season, Dave Jones has seen his side collect 12 points. The Midlands club’s confidence going into the play-offs should in truth be sky high as they are also unbeaten in nine. Not only are Wolves the form team – they also look to have the best-equipped squad for the play-offs with a useful blend of youth and experience.
Should the second favourites for promotion fail to progress past the semi-final stage, the club with the next best chance of Premiership football according to our research would be Reading. Having amassed 12 points from the last six games, the Royals boast better form than Nottingham Forest (6 points) and Sheffield United (10 points). As has been shown from the past seven years, the eventual Play-Off winner has either been the club with the best or second best record towards the end of the regular season. For this reason a small saver is recommended on the bookies outsiders. |
