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London Marathon
Ben Gilmore, readaBet.com
Click here for London Marathon Best Odds
The only annual sporting event where the likes of Bob The Builder, Steve Redgrave and Bubble off ‘Big Brother’ line up on the same start line as proven Olympic athletes is here once again. While the thought of listening to Brendan Foster drone on for over two hours does not appeal, and to be honest, paint dries with more charisma, then spare a thought for Steve Cram who has to sit next to the repetitive summariser. Anyway, how are you going to make your money on the races …?
The organisers of big city marathons always love a world best performance, and following Khalid Khannouchi’s blistering time last year, there is great hope for a repeat in both races. For the first time, the governing body have allowed the Women’s Race to include male pacemakers in a bid to improve on Paula Radcliffe’s world best, set in Chicago last autumn. Whether you view this as fair is not worth worrying about really, as the race is going to be very quick. That is if the women can keep up because all of the male pacemakers are Kenyan. In the men’s race, last year’s winner Khannouchi dropped out a few weeks ago, but it will be no less competitive as one of the best elite men’s fields of all time are tempted to the capital.
View Betting Verdict
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2003-04-13
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MEN |
Paul Tergat (2:05.48) Kenya
5 times World Cross Country Champion. 2nd last year in London. 4th in Chicago. Not one to crack easily. But has a ‘nearly man’ thing about him.
Abdel El Mouaziz (2:06.52) Morocco
Twice winner of the race (1999 and 2001). Ran his PB in last year’s lightning Chicago race and is a major threat to Tergat.
Gezahegne Abera (2:07.54) Ethiopia
Olympic and world marathon champion. Hasn’t run London before but will definitely be within shouting distance at the business end of the race. Running legend Haile Gebreselassie can’t say enough good things about his marathon ability.
Ray Kipkoech (2:06.47) Kenya
One of the more eccentric Kenyan athletes. Has been very consistent at big city races. Age unknown.
Antonio Pinto (2:06.36) Portugal
Three-time winner. Drinks a bottle of wine every day. Age 37. Won’t win it this time.
Stefano Baldini (2:07.29) Italy
Former European champion who is always lurking in these races, but the African challenge will be too much for him.
Hendrick Ramaala (2:10.06) South Africa
Very quick over the half-marathon (59:20), has much to prove over this distance to be considered among the favourites. Is unquoted by the bookies so far, but London is a breeding ground for marathon breakthroughs and he is due one.
Bong Ju Lee (2:07.20) South Korea
Once Boston winner, 2nd in Tokyo three years ago. Field will be too strong for him to make an impact.
Daniel Njenga (2:06.16) Kenya
Took 5 minutes from his PB to get 2nd in Chicago last year. Taking just 1 more minute off that will almost certainly win him this race. At 14/1 is a value bet.
Joseph Kahuga (2:07.59) Kenya
Wearing number 13, highly unlikely to be the first to reach the Queen’s gaff. |
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2003-04-13
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WOMEN |
Paula Radcliffe (2:17.18, World Record) GB
As ever, will be meticulously prepared for the race. Based on her two marathons so far, she just has to turn up to win it. This time will not have the element of surprise and will be carrying massive public expectation of a win and a world record.
Derartu Tulu (2:23.57) Ethiopia
In it for the appearance money? Maybe, but still one of the all-time greats. Never the most consistent, the double Olympic 10,000m champion won this race in 2001, got blown away in 2002, so might well be value at 12/1.
Catherine Ndereba (2:18.47) Kenya
Lost her world record to Radcliffe last year, and is not happy about the presence of male pacemakers. Best avoided because she’ll be very hyped up for the occasion.
Susan Chepkemei (2:23.19) Kenya
Has run a half marathon in 65:44, so her marathon best time is due for improvement. Is always there or thereabouts.
Lyudmila Petrova (2:22.33) Russia
Won in New York in 2000 and was 3rd in London last year. Can pull off a shock, but is 28/1, and probably worth that.
Constantina Dita (2:23.52) Romania
Her PB is modest, but on past form will be at the forefront in the early stages. Is quite likely to suffer if it is a very quick race though.
Deena Drossin (2:26.53) USA
6th in Chicago last year and good over the country. Not there to make up the numbers, but again will do very well to stick the pace. |
| Betting Verdict |
VERDICT FOR MEN
1 pt Njenga each-way at
1 pt Kipkoech each-way at
Tergat is a phenomenal athlete having won numerous World Cross Country titles, but has on occasion been found wanting on the road and track. A lot of the early money has backed Olympic champion Abera, whose odds have tightened very quickly as punters have picked up on his pedigree. He’s now joint favourite with Tergat. Backers of Abera at the earlier, more favourable odds should be quietly confident, though whoever the winner of this race turns out to be, they have a major battle on their hands in the second half of the race. However, these two are fully valued and placing money on a couple of potential breakthrough Kenyan athletes is what we’re going for.
This year your dilemma of whether to stick your hard-earned cash on a Brit is made easy because Paula Radcliffe is quicker than any of the UK men. Local hope Mark Steinle did drop out recently, though he wouldn’t have figured anyway.
VERDICT FOR WOMEN
1pts Chepkemei each-way at
Marathons can make a mockery of the best laid plans, with many a red-hot favourite caving in to the gruelling demands of the race. Due to her desires to re-write the record books, she could well come unstuck (see Dorre, Ceron, Fiz), and no amount of crowd support will rescue a runner if they hit the wall. Just don’t stick your life savings on her not winning it, as she remains a class apart. Despite the risk of her blowing up, the value bet to consider is in searching for a double (or series of doubles) with Radcliffe as the woman’s winner along with a contender(s) from the wide-open men’s race. The outsider is Chepkemei if Radcliffe were to falter. |
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