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Super Bowl 37: Specials
John Murray, readaBet.com
View Betting Verdict
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2003-01-26
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Tampa Bay v Oakland Raiders |
Click here for Super Bowl XXXVII Best Odds
As is appropriate for the biggest televised event in the world, there is a vast range of markets available for the punter on Super Bowl XXXVII, which takes place in San Diego on Sunday night.
Our NFL analyst Ben Swift has already cast his expert eye over the mouth-watering clash between Oakland and Tampa Bay, picking out a number of tasty wagers, but it is worth mentioning just a few highlights of the other bets on offer.
Possible wagers range from the standard (total points scored) to the slightly more random (winner of the coin toss) – unsurprisingly, both team are rated at evens for the latter. First of all, for those who are picking an outright winner, Paddy Power will refund any losing bets should the match extend to overtime. However, don’t let this sway your decision in having a punt, since the extra period has never been required in the history of the Bowl.
Markets are available on the number of sacks, penalties, and punts (all of which look fairly hard to pinpoint to a set number), but perhaps there is some money to be made in the team that will be penalised first. As was evident in last weekend’s AFC Championship game, and in fact for most of the regular season, the Raiders’ discipline has frequently let them down. Oakland have been penalised far more than the Bucs, and could be worth backing for the first penalty at 4/6.
Nevertheless, better value can be found in the individual markets, relating to such statistics as players’ rushing and receiving yards. 13/10 with Bet365 for Oakland quarterback Rich Gannon to make less than 24.5 pass completions could be an absolute steal. Last week against the Titans, the Raiders came out with the sole intention of throwing the football as much as possible – 29 passes were made from a possible 41. The reason that this was so high is that Tennessee are very good at stopping the run, thus prompting Oakland to direct their attack to the air.
However, on Sunday, Gannon and co. will be up against the Buccaneers, widely acclaimed as the best pass defence team ever. For this reason, it seems inevitable that they will focus on running the ball much more. In fact, while the Raiders threw the football a huge amount for most of the early season, this has not been their ploy in recent weeks. From their last six matches, pass completions read as follows – 26, 17, 18, 7, 20, and 29. Moreover, against the one team that comes close to the Bucs in defensive ability, Miami, Gannon only managed 17 completed throws, while QB legend Brett Favre threw for just 20 passes against Tampa.
These statistics suggest that Gannon is likely to make less than 24.5 passes, which makes odds of 13/10 look cracking value. Take into account that the Bucs will be aiming to keep the ball for as long as possible in order to prevent Oakland’s explosive offence from being on the field, and it appeals even more. Opposing quarterbacks have a rating of just 46 against Tampa, and despite his team’s quality in attack, we shouldn’t expect Gannon to fare much better than the norm.
The bookies have also treated us to a number of player match-ups, giving the option of which opposing team member will receive, tackle, or even kick more. A possibility could be the Raiders’ Charlie Garner at 4/5 to have a higher receiving yardage than Michael Pittman, even with a 20.5 yards handicap. However, the best advice must be to not get carried away and simply content yourself with Gannon’s pass completions. |
| Betting Verdict |
5pts Rich Gannon Pass Completions to be under 24.5 at 13/10 (Bet365 )
Throughout this season, Tampa Bay have restricted opposing quarterbacks to an average of 17 completed passes per game. Even though Oakland can boast the best offence in the NFL, it looks like Bet365 have overestimated Rich Gannon in the throwing stakes. Against the Titans last week, the Raiders aimed to throw the ball at every opportunity, since their opponents excelled at stopping the run. This week, we should expect a reversal in tactics since the Bucs boast a sensational pass defence, possibly the best ever. Admittedly, the impressive Gannon should still exert some influence, but he will definitely be restricted to some extent in San Diego. |
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