F1 Season Preview
Tony Annesar, readaBet.com?
An in-depth Betting Preview of the F1 2002/2003 season.
Please note betting verdict was published after the Australian GP.
View Betting Verdict
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2002-01-01
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F1 2002/3 LT PREVIEW: FERRARI |
FERRARI
Last years F201 was ‘perfect’ in the words of Ferrari technical director Ross Brawn. Anyone who pays attention to such things will realise that the last time a technical director said such a thing was possibly around the time the wheel was invented! It is true that finding fault with last years car was not an easy task, and such was the performance that a modified version of the F201 would probably still be competitive in the early stages of 2002 [Ferrari have just announced they will be running newly built ‘2001 spec’ cars in Melbourne]. This has given Ferrari a ‘safety net’ which has enabled them to be more radical with the design of the F202 with the aim of getting even more performance. Ultimately the penalty paid for trying too hard is poor reliability but with a design as good as the F201 to fall back on, they can take this chance. This is a very risky strategy, and if the new car proves to be less than reliable and Ferrari are forced into using the old car, this could hand the initiative to their rivals and allow them to steal a march in the early season.
Michael Schumacher.
The one driver on the grid who has nothing left to prove. Whilst usually motivation would be questioned for a sportsman who has so dominated his field, he shows absolutely no sign of easing up. Indeed his qualifying session in the final race of 2001 at Suzuka, Japan was as dominant as he has ever been. Qualifying being regarded as a true sign of a driver’s commitment. In fact, instead of taking the recommended holiday away from driving, he insisted on being back in the car to take the new F202 through its early life and hence maximise the time available to tune it to his liking. Whilst he is the unquestionable favourite to win the title for the third successive time, and a record equalling 5th in total, there are a few hurdles in his way.
Rubens Barrichello
One of the drivers with the most to prove. Possibly the only driver in Formula 1 who seems happy to be
second best in a team, albeit the best team. Unquestionably talented driver and his form towards the end of last season shows what he could achieve if he was given a fair crack of the whip. Why he has re-signed with Ferrari to be Schumacher’s understudy for a further period, only Rubens knows….
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2002-01-01
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F1 2002/3 LT PREVIEW: MCLAREN |
A rare poor season last year. They lost their technical director, Adrian Newey, then got him back again in the blink of an eye, all whilst efforts were being diverted into getting the new Paragon factory up and running. Hopefully things will go a little more smoothly this year, although they have lost their biggest asset, Mika Hakkinen, and replaced him with an inexperienced young star. This could hinder the team’s technical development. Equally it could prove to be the inspiration the team seems to require at the moment.
Last year the MP4-16 was average by Mclaren standards (something most teams would love to achieve!). Several factors have been blamed, not least the Adrian Newey fiasco mid-season. All that
has been sorted out now so expect the best designer in Formula 1 to create another world beater (but maybe not Schumacher beater). There is an all new Mercedes V10 to go with the car, and whilst there are some doubts over its current power output, expect it to be right up there by Melbourne. The one
overriding factor, which will potentially make or break the car is Michelin tyres, new to Mclaren for 2002. It will take time to accrue enough data to use the tyres effectively and it is a serious race against time to achieve this for the opening race.
David Coulthard
He is more focused, fitter, best/last chance. These are just some of the clichés permanently attached to Coulthard during the pre-season build up. This time it may well be true. Coulthard's number one obstacle in the race for previous championships has rarely been Michael Schumacher, in fact, all things being equal, on track battles with the German he tends to come out better with several decent overtaking moves in his favour (more than can be said for Hakkinen who often seemed to be in Schumacher’s wheel tracks for three grand prixs at a time without even attempting an overtake). The fact that schumi tends to deride Coulthard at every possible opportunity to the press indicates that there may be something there to worry the man. In truth the Scots main problem has always been team mate Mika Hakkinen, the favourite of team principle Ron Dennis, and a driver whose qualifying pace is simply unbeatable when he gets it right, certainly in the same car. First the good news – Mika has gone, choosing to take a year holiday. Now the bad news – his replacement (Kimi Raikkonen) appears to be just as fast and a lot more aggressive, and he’s also a Finn! Coulthards best chance is to capitalise on his experience to outclass his young teammate early on and hopefully the new car will be good enough to take him into an early lead in the championship.
Kimi Raikkonen
Once again lots of clichés apply. He’s a fast, inexperienced young driver with everything to prove. He
will be desperately trying to avoid ‘Jenson Button Syndrome’ and maintain the pace he showed in his
debut season with Sauber. Only time will tell for sure, but he is good enough to win races this year provided the car is quick enough. The major obstacle, which stops fast, young drivers becoming
consistent race winners tends to be mental toughness, something which Kimi seems to have buckets off as illustrated by several significant crashes at the end of last season which he immediately bounced back from (metaphorically of course). Possibly a champion in the making, but not this year.
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2002-01-01
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F1 2002/3 LT PREVIEW: WILLIAMS |
Much was made of the FW23s performance last year, although realistically it only proved dominant on
tracks with enormous straights and big stops. That combination tends to favour cars with big engines, which certainly the BMW was. Now whilst the BMW engine enjoyed a power advantage over its
rivals, it also had a reliability approximating that of Korean made fake Rolex, when it worked it was
great, but rarely did it work for long. There is a theory that if BMWs competitors pushed there engines
to the point were the reliability levels matched the BMW, they would at least be on a par in terms of performance, and more probably beyond. To win a championship, reliability and speed are required. Williams’s best hope is a dominant Michelin tyre, reliable BMW engine and a struggling Mclaren
(their main Michelin clad competitor).
Ralf Schumacher
The insiders favourite to win the title. This may surprise a lot of people but when he has his winning hat on he can be as cool and collected as his older brother, admittedly when things aren’t going his way he has an annoying tendency to mess it up. If the car package Williams roll out in Melbourne proves to have the beating of everything else on the grid, it will come down to a straight fight between Ralf and his teammate Juan Pablo Montoya for the title.
Juan Pablo Montoya
The tough Columbian who barged past Schumacher in his second ever GP and was often sensational last year. The one race win he netted did not reflect his pace. One important fact is the incredible number of retirements. Statistics tell us that his retirement rate makes him the second unluckiest driver in F1 history; obviously the car plays a part in this, but is the Columbian too hard on his equipment. Its one thing to hit the track and be fast, it is entirely another to be fast over an extended period. There’s not much more to add, except that if you believe the hype he will be the man to take over from Michael Schumacher.
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2002-01-01
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F1 2002/3 LT PREVIEW: SAUBER |
My favourite team of the 2001 season. Admittedly they were flattered by the often-feeble efforts of their main opposition, re. BAR, Jaguar, Jordan, although it is refreshing to see a ‘private’ team getting the job done against the big money, works backed teams. Could easily be the surprise package again this year, especially in the early races. Bridgestone tyres could play a huge part again.
The Sauber C21 to be used this season has shown respectable pace, and using year old Ferrari engines is no disadvantage. The key strength in the package, aside from a very strong driver in Heidfeld, is likely to be the Bridgestone tyres. Undoubtedly they will work better at some tracks than the Michelins and this offers a great opportunity for Sauber to steal points from Mclaren and Williams (both on Michelins). If they get the strategies right, with a bit of luck Sauber could be challenging for Podiums at some races this year.
Nick Heidfeld
The talented German must have breathed a huge sigh of relief last year. After an appalling debut season with Prost in 2000, he had an excellent season in 2001 with Sauber, finishing in the points seven times, with only bad luck stopping more. He was justified in being annoyed when Mclaren overlooked him and chose teammate Raikkonen for 2002. This season could be another good one for Heidfeld, with the Sauber showing good pace in pre-season testing.
Felipe Massa
Highly rated Brazilian rookie, some say he could be the next Senna that will be about the tenth one so far then!. Likely to be fast at times, but unlikely to be as good as Raikkonen was in his first season. Very little is really known about this driver, although team boss Peter Sauber has a good eye for talent and rates him higher than Raikkonen.
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2002-01-01
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F1 2002/3 LT PREVIEW: RENAULT |
The renamed Benetton team has high hopes for 2002. Renault have never been people to do things by half and there are signs that a promising season lies ahead. Last season the team improved massively throughout the year with Fischichella achieving some respectable finishes, and eclipsing Button consistently. Renault have claimed they will start the season on a par with Sauber, i.e. just behind the big three teams. This is possible but I don’t rate either of the drivers particularly well at this point. Likely to be a good car, with results not matching the potential. Hopefully they will sign Jacque Villeneuve mid season and get some real results.
The R202 promises much. The most interesting technical point has to be the 111degree wide angle V10 engine. When it debuted last year it was horribly down on power, but with each update it became more competitive. With the development put in over the winter it is likely to be one of the better engines on the grid in Melbourne. Michelin tyres could work out well, although I fail to see how they plan to beat Mclaren and Williams when they are the tyre to have.
Jarno Trulli
A very difficult driver to understand. His qualifying form is more often than not electric, last year he got the Jordan much further up the grid than it should have been, however it never seemed to translate into race results where he often seemed to be trailing round at 7/10s. He’s undoubtedly got the skills, and this could be the year that makes or breaks him as a driver. He will have to overshadow Button like Fischichella did in 2001.
Jenson Button
It’s simply got to get better. After such an impressive debut year, 2001 must have been a real culture shock to the much treasured – at least in the UK - Jenson. His talent is there for all to see but he really struggled last season. If Renault can provide a fast, reliable car this should make it much easier to turn things around.
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2002-01-01
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F1 2002/3 LT PREVIEW: JORDON |
Simply put, things are looking bad for Jordan this season. They seemed to be lacking a title sponsor until recently, and the new Honda engine is under performing. On the plus side they have got star driver Giancarlo Fischichella back on board. Sure fire bet for a podium on one of the driver circuits such as Spa or Suzuka. All in all the opposite of Renault, two excellent drivers, and a bad car.
An under performing engine, possible finance problems until recently and poor testing pace is not a good start to the year. Jordan have proved the press wrong before and been fast when they should not have been but that trick is getting harder to achieve every year.
Giancarlo Fisichella
A truly gifted driver who excels on drivers circuits. Quite why this man is not driving for a front running team by now is beyond me. Sadly the car is not likely to be up to much this season so don’t expect miracles, although a couple of podiums are possibly with Fisichellas excellent race craft.
Takuma Sato
The man everyone in Japan wants to see winning. He utterly dominated the British F3 series last year but don’t expect too much from him this year. It will take him a while to get into the swing of things.
Undoubtedly a talent for the future.
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2002-01-01
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F1 2002/3 LT PREVIEW: BAR |
Another bad year looms for the Brackley based team. Lumped with the same under performing engine as Jordan, new management team and a very unhappy star driver in Jacque Villeneuve. It’s fair to say things could be better. One of the strongest driver line ups in F1 but still to provide a decent car for them to race.
Looks like another turkey from the team. Last years car had an inherent design flaw, which hindered progress. This year’s car just appears to be underpowered. Unless Honda make headway early in the season, it is going to be another tough season.
Jacque Villeneuve
One of the outstanding talents of the period, and liable to perform as well as can be expected this year. Jacques loyalty to BAR has always been attributed to his friend and BAR boss Craig Pollock. Now he’s left there is little to keep Villeneuve at the team. Hopefully he will see the light and jump ships to Renault mid season, for a chance to fight for race wins.
Olivier Panis
A dependable driver who generally performs on a par with Villeneuve, slightly better qualifier, slightly
worse racer. Sadly he’s stuck at BAR now and this is likely to be one of his last seasons in F1.
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2002-01-01
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F1 2002/3 LT PREVIEW: JAGUAR |
Mediocrity looms again. A schoolboy style error in the wind tunnel has left them in worse shape than ever for the coming season and consequently they have been generally poor in testing. The team has so much politics surrounding it, that racing almost comes secondary to justifying their budget to owners Ford every season. Unlikely to do well this year, expect a few more 5th and 6th places from Eddie Irvine, but little more.
Testing pace has been very poor, and the cold truth is that a slow car generally stays slow for a whole season and Jaguar certainly are not focused enough to turn things round.
Eddie Irvine
The enigmatic Irish man runs into the third year of his pension plan/contract with Jaguar. He must be laughing at Jaguar behind their backs. He is probably in the top five earners in F1 and all he has to do is score a top six finish once or twice a season and everyone thinks he’s great, expect him to achieve precisely that this year.
Pedro De La Rosa
Bad driver, bad car. He has never done much to justify his place in F1 and it seems unlikely that 2002 will help him out.
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2002-01-01
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F1 2002/3 LT PREVIEW: ARROWS |
The new car showed some decent pace in the last test day at Silverstone so maybe they could be a surprise result in Melbourne. They have a rejuvenated Heinz Harold Frentzen who is in the best from of his life since getting sacked by Jordan last season. Lack of funding will likely be the biggest problem. The team’s aim for the season has to be outperforming Jaguar who is using the factory version of the Cosworth engines.
The car is not bad for the resources they have, and always willing to try out new ideas. Sadly it rarely works for them and they seriously need a cash injection to move further up the grid.
Heinz Harold Frentzen
The German believes he has it all to prove since Jordan dumped him midseason for under performing.
Likely to run well in wet conditions when the lack of power should not hold him back too far.
Enrique Bernoldi
He’s had some fast times in testing this winter but it is unlikely that will translate to speed when the racing starts for real. Frentzen will prove to be too fast for him.
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2002-01-01
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F1 2002/3 LT PREVIEW: MINARDI |
The perennial tail enders of the F1 grid. Despite the claims of team owner Paul Stoddart it is being run as a business and no serious effort is ever made to move the team futher up the grid. They do serve a purpose though and bring two new young drivers to the F1 grid every year. The car will hopefully be better than last year’s effort although they did lose talented driver, Gustav Brunner to Toyota. The engine is no better than average.
Alex Yoong
Usual sort of rent-a-driver who gets to F1 because they’ve got a lot of backing. Performed really badly at the end of last year, expect more of the same this season.
Mark Webber
Talented Australian who is using Minardi as a springboard into a real F1 drive. Needs to thoroughly outperform Yoong at every opportunity.
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2002-01-01
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F1 2002/3 LT PREVIEW: TOYOTA |
The only new team for 2002. They have a vast budget and very competent staff. They are undoubtedly the team most likely to surprise this season. It is conceivable they could come in to F1 and be a ready made mid-field team, and this is what testing pace is indicating, although they will struggle on the tracks they haven’t tested at, such as Monaco, Melbourne, etc….
The design looks like a fairly conventional F1 car, obviously not wanting to take too many risks. The engine looks to be very promising however, with rumours of 850BHp common in the paddock
Mika Salo
Very good driver. Proved to be reasonably consistent when in F1 before. His season will depend upon the car more than anything he can do.
Alan McNish
Bit of an unknown quantity. Undeniably a superb sportscar driver, but possibly a bit old to be starting a career in F1. His experience could prove useful though.
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| Betting Information |
1pt Mclaren to win Constructors Championship at 7/1
Drivers Championship - Coulthard for the title 12/1 is an excellent price. In Australia he was emerging as the main challenger to Schumacher, even with a misbehaving engine management system that kept launching him off the track. Admittedly much of his hopes rest upon the performance of the Michelin tyres and Mercedes engine, but that’s motorsport. Michael Schumacher at 2/5 is a non-starter.
Constructors Championship – The ominously good form of Ferrari has given them very poor odds at ½, but this is based on Michael Schumacher dominance. If Coulthard and Mclaren can raise their game, particularly when Ferrari run the new car for the first time to take advantage of the inevitable teething problems then they have an excellent chance at the title. Another major factor is the simple fact that if Coulthard is challenging for the title, then Schumacher is not running away in the points and so teammate performance will have a much larger effect on the outcome. This is where I feel Mclaren are better equipped to make a challenge with rising star Kimi Raikkonen.
Take the 7/1 on Mclaren winning the Championship
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