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Embassy World Championship
Johnny O'Shea, readaBet.com
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View Betting Verdict
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2003-04-19
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GO POTTY FOR HENDRY |
It is an exciting time for snooker fans and gamblers alike, as the World Snooker Championship are set to consume both for seventeen days beginning this weekend.
Six different players have won the title at the famous Crucible Theatre in the last six years, and all of them will fancy their chances again this time around. There are also other players who have realistic possibilities of success.
Last year produced one of the most exciting tournaments in history. Peter Ebdon was the man who finally lifted the trophy but a first time winner has never successfully defended the world title.
With Ebdon automatically instated as top seed, it has meant that three of the big four favourites are grouped together in the bottom half of the draw. John Higgins then, becomes the highest ranked player in the top half, and must have a tremendous chance of reaching the final. This is especially true as Ebdon has been in poor form ever since taking this title a year ago.
Only one of Stephen Hendry and Mark Williams can possibly advance past the quarterfinals, where they will probably meet Ronnie O’Sullivan. It is also slightly unfortunate to note that both the players that competed in the final of the Regal Scottish last week, Andy Gray and Mark Selby, have failed to qualify for the World Championship.
We shall now have a look at the main contenders to take the Embassy World Championship this year.
Ronnie O’Sullivan
The most exciting player of the current generation and firm favourite with the Sheffield crowd, O’Sullivan combines outrageous talent with controversy in every tournament he enters. The Essex dweller won the title in 2001, but failed to defend, losing 13-17 to Stephen Hendry in the semi final last year. Hendry also beat him in the 1999 and 1995 semi finals.
Of all the players, it is he that has the best form coming into the tournament. Before losing in the last sixteen at the Regal Scottish last week, the man they call ‘The Rocket’ had won the two previous ranking events. These were the Irish Masters and the European Open. His talent is not in question, but his temperament may well be. Seventeen days is a long time to remain composed and this has let him down before. A verbal assault on Stephen Hendry ahead of his semi final last year totally backfired and was another case of mental weakness from O’Sullivan.
The second round should see him playing Alan McManus which will not be easy, and the semi final would pair him against either Stephen Hendry or Mark Williams. Hendry has beaten him three times in this event, whilst Williams and O’Sullivan have been involved in a public feud which could easily work against the hot headed Englishman. For these reasons we cannot advise backing him at odds as short as .
Stephen Hendry
This man has won this championship more times than anybody else, and his chances can never be discounted. His seven world titles confirm his status as the greatest player of all time, and the scary fact is that there could well be more to add to that list.
Last year, as this, all of the talk was about the likes of O’Sullivan and Williams, but when it came to the crunch, Hendry came through to make it to his ninth final. It does not matter who is at the table against him, the experience of winning matches at the Crucible always gives the Scotsman the edge.
His form has been decent this year also. The Regal Welsh became his 34th ranking title, a record in itself, and two other finals have been made, at the B&H; Masters, and the European Open. This compares favourably to the last time he lifted this trophy, in 1999, when only one final was reached in the year leading up to Sheffield.
The Scotsman’s record in this tournament is phenomenal, and he still has the ability to mix it with the new generation of players. In the Regal Welsh, Mark Williams lost to him in the final, and Ronnie O’Sullivan lost to him in the semi finals of last year’s World Championship.
Twice in the last five years, Hendry has lost in the first round, but we see little difficulty in him getting past Gary Wilkinson this time, a player he has lost to only once in fifteen contests. His odds (6/1 with tote betXpress) are more generous than those being offered on the other top players, and we see good reason to back him to make it World Championship number eight.
Mark Williams
Williams won the world title in 2000, and has been ranked either one or two in the world ever since. It is an amazing fact that the Welshman has not lost in the first round of a ranking event, in 45 tournaments. Stuart Pettman is surely set for an early exit therefore.
So far this season, he has two titles to his name, the Benson and Hedges Masters, and the UK Championship. He also made it to the final of the Regal Welsh but was beaten by Stephen Hendry.
A major problem for Williams is that his cue was recently damaged and there is no possibility of shaping a replacement before the Embassy begins. It is the same cue he has used since the age of fifteen, and the damage was, according to Williams, responsible for his early exits at the Irish Masters and the Regal Scottish in his last two events.
There is also a well-publicised dispute with Ronnie O’Sullivan and that could easily have a debilitating affect on both players. In both the last two years Williams has lost in the second round and so all of these factors make his odds of 7/4 with tote betXpress seem fairly short, especially considering that his half of the draw is the more difficult.
John Higgins
Higgins has a fine record at The Crucible and will fancy his chances of adding to his 1998 title. Of the top four players, only Higgins made it into the last sixteen at the Regal Scottish last week. The fact that he failed to win when so many of the top stars were not involved was disappointing for him though. David Gray, who has not even qualified for the World Championship, ended his run in the semi final.
The Scotsman rarely fails on the biggest stage, and has made it to at least the semi finals in five of the last six years. He has not won any ranking tournaments this year, but has not been knocked out before the round of the last sixteen either. In the two finals reached, at the Regal Masters and the Irish Masters, the man who has denied him the title has been Ronnie O’Sullivan. This is the same man who beat him in the final of the 2001 World Championship and so he will be glad to be in the other half of the draw to the Rocket.
The draw has been kind to Higgins. Ian McCullogh in the first round should not prove too difficult and then world number thirteen Joe Perry should await in the next round. We cannot see him providing any more than token resistance. Former champion Ken Doherty is a likely quarterfinal opponent, a player against whom he has an 11-3 record. Next up could be any one of Peter Ebdon, Paul Hunter or Matthew Stevens in the semi final. Higgins has far better form than Stevens or Ebdon, and the necessary experience to beat Hunter. He must have a fantastic chance of reaching the final and so we see good reason to include him in our staking plan at best odds of 40/1 with Skybet.
Matthew Stevens
The young Welshman has an affinity for The Crucible, and always seems to save his best performances for this championship. For people who only watch the World Championships, it will seem amazing that Stevens has never won a ranking event. In 1998 and 1999 the Welshman made it to the quarterfinals, and in 2001 and 2002 the semi final was reached. The best result was in 2000 though when he competed an all-Welsh final with Mark Williams. In three of those five years his conqueror has gone on to win the title. This was the case last year when Peter Ebdon dug deep to win a truly epic semi final, 18-17.
Despite this record, odds of can still be found. This is due to the lack of form in existence since last years Championship. Of seven top tournaments entered, only one quarter final has been reached, at the Irish Masters. Other than at that tournament when he was beaten by Ronnie O’Sullivan, the quality of players lost to has not been particularly high. A 5-1 drubbing at the hands of veteran Tony Drago in the Regal Welsh is probably his worst result of the year. The potential is there to have a good run, and the draw puts him against players he should have a chance against. Paul Hunter and Peter Ebdon for example. These are matches that could easily go the other way however, and we simply do not have enough confidence in his form to support him.
Ken Doherty
Ken Doherty loosened Stephen Hendry’s vice like grip on the World title in 1997, by shocking him and the sporting world with an 18-12 win in the final. That was one of only five ranking titles, but he is another player that tends to save his best for the bright lights of Sheffield.
His form has been sporadic this season, the highlight being a final appearance at the UK Championship. Mark Williams edged him out 10-9 in that one. Reaching the semi final at the Regal Scottish last week shows that he is playing decently, although he did lose to Mark Selby, a player ranked eighteen places below him.
Doherty looks good to reach the quarterfinals, the stage that he lost at last year to Stephen Hendry. If the seeding works out, his opponent this year will be John Higgins, a man who has an 11-3 record against the Irishman. The best odds on him winning the tournament are 4/1 with tote betXpress.
Peter Ebdon
Ebdon gained the affection of the nation at last year’s championship. His slightly quirky ways and fierce determination proving enough to beat Stephen Hendry in the final frame to lift the trophy. It was the second time the Englishman had made it to the final, and he has a reputation for improving performance on the big occasion.
Since that success, his from has failed to live up to his status of World Champion. His best results have been at the European Open in March, and the UK Championships in December, when the semi finals were reached. Last week at the Regal Scottish, Ali Carter disposed of him in the second round, and the same stage was as far as he got at the Irish Masters two weeks ago. His form going into last year’s event was far more impressive, with two finals and three quarter finals reached in ranking tournaments.
As defending champion, he gets the top seed spot, but has shown little form. The first round puts him against Gerard Greene of Northern Ireland which should be easy enough, but when he comes up against one of the seeds, it will take a big improvement to see him advance. Any one of Swail, Hunter, Stevens, or more likely Higgins should stop Ebdon reaching a third final, and even with best odds of 9/1 with tote betXpress, we cannot see good reason to support him.
Paul Hunter
Hunter has had an impressive year, winning the British Open and making three other semi finals. Losing in the second round of the Regal Scottish last week was easily his worst showing in nine events, and followed directly on from a semi final at the Irish Masters where he beat Mark Williams on route.
Going against Hunter is a poor record at the Crucible though. In four years of playing there, the Yorkshireman has only won one match. Last year Quinten Hann was his undoing, and Stephen Hendry and Joe Swail have both ended his challenge before.
Being in the top half of the draw, there should be a good chance of progression. Ali Carter in the first round will not be easy though, and that would set up a probable match with Crucible specialist Matthew Stevens. Defending champion Peter Ebdon probably awaits the winner of that one and then John Higgins. So, whilst the big three are all in the bottom half, these are all potential banana skins for Hunter, a man unproven at the Championship. As such his outright odds of 5/1 with tote betXpress seem too short. |
| Betting Verdict |
3 pts Stephen Hendry to win at 6/1 with tote betXpress.
Appealing odds for a man who has won this title more times than anyone and takes a psychological advantage with him every time he approaches the table. Has the game to beat anyone, but more importantly the experience.
3 pts John Higgins to win at 40/1 with Skybet.
The draw has been kind to the former champion and he has a tremendous chance to progress to the final without too much difficulty. If he should get there, it is likely that he will be the fresher of the two players, as the bottom half is far tougher looking. |
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